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Post-Tropical Cyclone COLIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2016-06-07 22:19:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 07 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 072019 PWSAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 2100 UTC TUE JUN 07 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 19(19) 8(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Post-Tropical Cyclone COLIN Forecast Advisory Number 10
2016-06-07 22:19:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTNT23 KNHC 072019 TCMAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 2100 UTC TUE JUN 07 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 72.2W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 35 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 210SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 240SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 72.2W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 74.5W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 39.5N 65.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 240SE 180SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 43.5N 56.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 300SE 240SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 46.5N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 300SE 240SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 48.0N 43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 360SE 240SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 53.0N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 180SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.5N 72.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone COLIN Graphics
2016-06-07 19:33:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Jun 2016 17:33:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Jun 2016 15:04:33 GMT
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone COLIN (AT3/AL032016)
2016-06-07 19:32:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POST-TROPICAL COLIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Tue Jun 7 the center of COLIN was located near 35.3, -74.7 with movement NE at 38 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone COLIN Public Advisory Number 9A
2016-06-07 19:32:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 071732 TCPAT3 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 200 PM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016 ...POST-TROPICAL COLIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.3N 74.7W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All tropical storm warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Colin was estimated near latitude 35.3 North, longitude 74.7 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 38 mph (61 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. The center of Colin will move away from the North Carolina coast this afternoon and pass well east of the mid-Atlantic coast later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts, although the system's strongest winds and heaviest rains are located over water well southeast of the center. Some slight strengthening is possible today and tonight, but gradual weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) primarily to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Colin is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches across far eastern North Carolina and 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches, across central Florida through this evening. STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the west coast of the Florida peninsula, but are expected to subside by this evening. Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf are possible along portions of the Outer Banks of North Carolina this afternoon. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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