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Post-Tropical Cyclone BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 12
2016-05-30 16:37:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 301437 TCDAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 Bonnie has been gradually weakening during the past 24 hours. Deep convection associated the depression dissipated around 0300 UTC, and the central pressure has risen several millibars since this time yesterday. Surface observations over land also indicate winds no higher than 15 kt near Bonnie's center of circulation, however, winds to around 25 kt are noted over water in a band well removed to the east. Given the absence of deep convection for about 12 hours, Bonnie no longer meets the criteria to be classified as a tropical cyclone and is being designated as a post-tropical/remnant low at this time. Sporadic convection could re-develop in association with Bonnie during the next few days, especially over land during peak diurnal heating. However, re-development into a tropical cyclone is not anticipated. Global models show the remnant low of Bonnie transitioning into an extratropical cyclone along a frontal zone just after 72 hours. The initial motion is estimated to be 065/02, although visible satellite imagery indicates little motion during the last few hours. The track model guidance shows the post-tropical cyclone generally meandering slowly east-northeastward during the next day or so in a region of weak southwesterly steering flow. A shortwave trough entering the Midwest in 2 to 3 days should cause the post- tropical cyclone to move northeast and then east-northeastward into the western Atlantic with an increase in forward speed. The new NHC track forecast is shifted a bit to the left of the previous one and keeps Bonnie over land during the next 3 days. There continues to be the potential for Bonnie to generate heavy rainfall and some flooding over portions of the Carolinas during the next 2 to 3 days. Future information on Bonnie can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 5 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 33.4N 79.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 31/0000Z 33.7N 79.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 31/1200Z 33.9N 78.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/0000Z 34.2N 78.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/1200Z 34.8N 77.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/1200Z 36.2N 76.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/1200Z 37.7N 73.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/1200Z 38.8N 69.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone BONNIE (AT2/AL022016)
2016-05-30 16:35:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BONNIE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS... As of 11:00 AM EDT Mon May 30 the center of BONNIE was located near 33.4, -79.8 with movement ENE at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone BONNIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2016-05-30 16:35:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON MAY 30 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 301435 PWSAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1500 UTC MON MAY 30 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 1(12) DANVILLE VA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) 2(14) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 2(14) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 2(14) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 1(15) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 2(13) X(13) FAYETTEVILLE 34 2 4( 6) 5(11) 3(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 6(14) 4(18) 2(20) X(20) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 3(16) 1(17) 1(18) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 2 6( 8) 6(14) 4(18) 3(21) 1(22) X(22) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 3 7(10) 6(16) 4(20) 3(23) 1(24) X(24) WILMINGTON NC 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 4 8(12) 5(17) 4(21) 1(22) 1(23) X(23) FLORENCE SC 34 5 4( 9) 3(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) 1(16) COLUMBIA SC 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 8 7(15) 4(19) 4(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) LITTLE RIVER 50 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 6 6(12) 6(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) 1(22) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 7 6(13) 3(16) 1(17) 1(18) 1(19) X(19) CHARLESTON SC 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone BONNIE Public Advisory Number 12
2016-05-30 16:35:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 301435 TCPAT2 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 ...BONNIE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.4N 79.8W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie was located near latitude 33.4 North, longitude 79.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, with some increase in forward speed by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bonnie is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across eastern South Carolina, eastern North Carolina, and southeast Virginia, with isolated maximum amounts near 5 inches. Farther north, the moisture from Bonnie will produce additional rainfall accumulations of up to 2 inches across eastern portions of the mid-Atlantic region into southern New England through Wednesday. Total rainfall of more than 8 inches has already occurred over large portions of south-central South Carolina. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on Bonnie can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 5 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Post-Tropical Cyclone BONNIE Forecast Advisory Number 12
2016-05-30 16:34:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON MAY 30 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 301434 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1500 UTC MON MAY 30 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 79.8W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 79.8W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 79.7W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 33.7N 79.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 33.9N 78.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.2N 78.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 34.8N 77.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 36.2N 76.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 37.7N 73.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 38.8N 69.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.4N 79.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON BONNIE CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 5 PM, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT2, WMO HEADER WTNT32 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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