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Post-Tropical Cyclone FIONA Forecast Advisory Number 27
2016-08-23 16:32:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 23 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 231432 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1500 UTC TUE AUG 23 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 64.5W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 64.5W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 64.0W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.6N 66.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.5N 67.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 28.4N 69.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.0N 69.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.5N 71.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 64.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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fiona
Post-Tropical Cyclone JAVIER Graphics
2016-08-09 23:04:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 09 Aug 2016 20:32:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 09 Aug 2016 21:04:35 GMT
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javier
cyclone
posttropical
Post-Tropical Cyclone JAVIER Forecast Discussion Number 11
2016-08-09 22:31:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 092031 TCDEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 300 PM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016 Satellite images show that the system lacks sufficient organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone. Therefore the cyclone is now being designated as a post-tropical remnant low, and this will be the last advisory on Javier. Surface observations and ASCAT scatterometer data indicate that the maximum winds are near 25 kt. The low should continue to gradually spin down, and it is likely to dissipate by Thursday. The center has become less well defined, but the best estimate of initial motion is around 310/9 kt. The low is likely to continue moving around the western periphery of a subtropical high pressure system until dissipation. The official track forecast is close to the model consensus. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 24.6N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 10/0600Z 25.3N 112.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/1800Z 26.2N 113.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/0600Z 27.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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javier
Post-Tropical Cyclone JAVIER Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2016-08-09 22:31:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 09 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 092031 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JAVIER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 2100 UTC TUE AUG 09 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 10(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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javier
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone JAVIER (EP1/EP112016)
2016-08-09 22:30:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JAVIER BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Aug 9 the center of JAVIER was located near 24.6, -112.0 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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javier
cyclone
posttropical
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