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Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-11-06 03:32:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060232 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 700 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 Odalys has been devoid of any significant convection within 100 n mi of the center for more than 12 hours, and the system no longer meets the satellite-based criteria of a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on an expected gradual spin down of the circulation, which is supported by a Dvorak current-intensity satellite classification of T2.0/30 kt. An earlier 1725Z ASCAT-A pass contained a small patch of 34-kt winds located northwest of the center, and there is currently no convection in that same sector of the cyclone. Post-tropical Odalys is currently located over marginal 26-deg-C sea-surface temperatures and within a very hostile vertical wind shear regime. The shear is expected to increase from the current 35 kt to more than 40 kt by 24 hours, which should prevent any significant and/or persistent convection from redeveloping near the low-level center. As a result, Odalys should continue to weaken and dissipate by 72 hours, if not sooner. The initial motion estimate is 270/07 kt. A westward motion should continue tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest or southwest by Friday afternoon, with that motion continuing into the weekend until Odalys dissipates. The NHC official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus track model TVCE. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Odalys. For additional information on the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 18.6N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 06/1200Z 18.3N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0000Z 17.6N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1200Z 17.0N 126.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z 16.4N 127.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/1200Z 15.9N 127.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys (EP5/EP202020)
2020-11-06 03:31:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ODALYS BECOMES A REMNANT LOW.. ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 7:00 PM PST Thu Nov 5 the center of Odalys was located near 18.6, -124.3 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys Public Advisory Number 10
2020-11-06 03:31:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 060231 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 700 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 ...ODALYS BECOMES A REMNANT LOW.. ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 124.3W ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM PST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 124.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). This motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a turn toward to the west-southwest by Friday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Odalys is expected to dissipate over the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Odalys. For additional information on the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-11-06 03:31:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 060231 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 0300 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 124.3W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 45SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 124.3W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 124.0W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.3N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.6N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.0N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.4N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.9N 127.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 124.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ODALYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW, PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-11-06 03:31:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 060231 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 0300 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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