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Post-Tropical Cyclone Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 26
2020-10-15 10:31:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 150831 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Norbert Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Vertical wind shear, cool waters, and a dry and stable atmosphere have taken a toll on Norbert. The system has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours, and therefore it has become a post-tropical cyclone. The initial wind speed is set at 25 kt, which is based on a TAFB Dvorak CI number of T1.5. This could be a little generous as the system has likely continued to spin down since the previous advisory. The remnant low should continue to weaken today, and the global models indicate that the low will open up into a trough of low pressure off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula by tonight. The post-tropical cyclone has slowed down and is now moving north-northwestward at about 6 kt. A slow north-northwestward motion within the weak low-level steering flow is expected until dissipation occurs. This is the last NHC advisory on Norbert. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 26.2N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 15/1800Z 27.1N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Norbert (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-15 10:31:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 the center of Norbert was located near 26.2, -116.1 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Norbert Public Advisory Number 26
2020-10-15 10:31:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 150831 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Norbert Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2020 ...NORBERT BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 116.1W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Norbert was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 116.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue until dissipation occurs later today or tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast and the remnant low is expected to dissipate later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Norbert. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2020-10-15 10:31:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 15 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 150831 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC THU OCT 15 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 26
2020-10-15 10:30:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 15 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 150830 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC THU OCT 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 116.1W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 116.1W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 115.9W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 27.1N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 116.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON NORBERT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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