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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 25
2019-08-30 16:49:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 30 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 301449 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 30 2019 Both Air Force and NOAA aircraft have been sending data from Dorian this morning. The flight-level winds from both planes have peaks at 100 kt and the SFMR measured 94 kt. The minimum central pressure has been oscillating between 972 and 976 mb. On this basis, the initial intensity has been set to 95 kt. The upper-low currently over Cuba which has been inducing some shear over Dorian is moving away from the hurricane, and the upper-level flow pattern is evolving toward a more favorable environment. In fact, the eye is becoming apparent on visible images as we speak and in radar data from the NOAA P3 aircraft. Consequently, the NHC forecast calls for additional intensification, and Dorian is expected to become an extremely dangerous major hurricane soon with additional strengthening likely as it heads for the northwestern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula. Fixes from both reconnaissance planes indicate that Dorian is moving toward the northwest of 310 degrees at 9 kt. As the upper-low over Cuba moves westward and a strong subtropical ridge builds over the western Atlantic as indicated by global models, the hurricane should be forced to turn west-northwestward and westward on a track toward the northwestern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula. By the end of the forecast period, the ridge is forecast to erode and the steering currents will weaken, resulting in Dorian slowing down considerably near and over the Florida peninsula. This increases the uncertainty in the track forecast during the 4- to -5 day period, and also will lead to a prolonged duration of wind, storm surge, and rainfall. The official forecast has been very consistent so far, and this one is very similar to the previous NHC forecast. It follows the multi-model and corrected consensus, and is in the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, where a hurricane watch is in effect. Residents should execute their hurricane plan and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the Florida east coast by early next week, but it is too soon to determine where the highest storm surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 3. A prolonged period of storm surge, high winds and rainfall is likely in portions of Florida into next week, including the possibility of hurricane-force winds over inland portions of the Florida peninsula. 4. Heavy rains are expected over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States this weekend into the middle of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 24.5N 69.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 25.3N 71.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 25.9N 72.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 27.0N 80.4W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND 120H 04/1200Z 29.0N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2019-08-30 16:49:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 30 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 301449 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC FRI AUG 30 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 18(22) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 21(27) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 32(48) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 29(40) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 16(25) 35(60) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 33(53) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) 34(65) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 26(34) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 29(44) 28(72) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 24(40) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 32(43) 31(74) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 28(44) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 18(26) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 36(57) 23(80) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 26(53) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 19(32) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 48(54) 24(78) 12(90) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 25(41) 18(59) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 15(36) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 31(35) 33(68) 16(84) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 25(35) 20(55) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 14(31) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 60(69) 20(89) 6(95) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 31(62) 10(72) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 24(38) 11(49) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 65(75) 18(93) 3(96) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 31(71) 6(77) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 29(48) 8(56) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 61(69) 22(91) 4(95) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 35(65) 5(70) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 28(42) 5(47) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 37(41) 37(78) 6(84) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 32(47) 6(53) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) 5(34) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 29(33) 38(71) 6(77) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 28(38) 7(45) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 5(28) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 31(56) 5(61) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 4(26) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 29(43) 6(49) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 4(19) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 45(61) 16(77) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 13(46) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 9(25) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 45(62) 19(81) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 32(36) 15(51) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 12(31) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 44(56) 21(77) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 20(47) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 13(26) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 40(50) 28(78) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 27(48) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 17(28) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 28(36) 36(72) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 27(38) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 26(35) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 28(40) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 27(38) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 27(42) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 36(41) 52(93) 5(98) X(98) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 64(72) 11(83) 1(84) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 48(49) 13(62) 1(63) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 36(43) 30(73) 5(78) 1(79) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 26(35) 5(40) 1(41) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 4(19) 1(20) ANDROS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 23(38) 9(47) 1(48) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 1(14) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 1 1( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 8(21) 4(25) 1(26) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 4( 5) 16(21) 6(27) 4(31) 3(34) X(34) SAN SALVADOR 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND TURK 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 25
2019-08-30 16:48:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 30 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 301448 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC FRI AUG 30 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 69.8W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 90SE 60SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 69.8W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 69.4W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.3N 71.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 25.9N 72.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 27.0N 80.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 29.0N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 69.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 30/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-08-30 16:48:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 30 the center of Dorian was located near 24.5, -69.8 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 25
2019-08-30 16:48:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 30 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 301448 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 30 2019 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 69.8W ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 69.8 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower west- northwestward to westward motion should begin tonight and continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas today and tomorrow, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida peninsula late Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane later today, and it will remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane while it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the Florida peninsula into early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure from the NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday night or Sunday morning. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week: Northwestern Bahamas and coastal sections of the Southeast United States...6 to 12 inches, isolated 18 inches. Central Bahamas...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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