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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 22
2019-08-29 22:47:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 292047 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 There has been little overall change in the structure of Dorian today. The hurricane has several well-defined bands of convection wrapping into the center and a small central dense overcast. The small eye has not been as apparent in geostationary satellite imagery this afternoon, but the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported concentric eyewall diameters of 4 and 22 n mi several hours ago. The latest satellite intensity estimates still support an initial intensity of 75 kt, which is also in line with the earlier SFMR data from the aircraft. The next reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the hurricane this evening. Dorian is moving northwestward or 325 at 11 kt. The hurricane should continue moving northwestward tonight between an upper-level low just to the west of Dorian and a mid-level ridge near Bermuda. On Friday, the ridge is forecast to begin building westward to the north of the cyclone, and this pattern is expected to cause the hurricane to turn west-northwestward. A west-northwestward to westward motion should then continue into the weekend with Dorian moving near or over the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida peninsula. The guidance envelope has nudged southward this cycle, with the ECMWF and HMON along the southern side, and the GFS bracketing the northern side. There has also been an increase in along-track spread or speed differences with day 5 positions among the dynamical models ranging from near the northwestern Bahamas to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This appears to be the result of differences in the models' depiction of the strength or lack thereof of the western portion of the ridge by day 5. The new NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged through the first 2 to 3 days, but has been adjusted southward and somewhat slower than the previous advisory at 96 and 120 hours. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as typical forecast errors at days 4 and 5 are around 155 and 205 miles, respectively. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one. Dorian will be moving through a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. This should allow for at least steady intensification, and Dorian is forecast to become major hurricane on Friday. Dorian is predicted to remain a dangerous hurricane throughout the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is again near the upper end of the guidance in best agreement with the HWRF and FSSE models. The National Weather Service has begun 6-hourly upper-air soundings across portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeastern United States. Six-hourly balloons are also being launched in Bermuda and Nassau in the Bahamas. A NOAA G-IV synoptic surveillance mission is ongoing, and the data from this flight will be assimilated into the 0000 UTC model cycle. Key Messages: 1. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds this weekend continues to increase in the northwestern Bahamas, and hurricane watches could be issued there tonight or Friday. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 2. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida east coast late this weekend or early next week, although it is too soon to determine where the highest storm surge will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 3. The risk of devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida east coast and peninsula late this weekend and early next week continues to increase, although it is too soon to determine where the strongest winds will occur. 4. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 22.5N 67.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 23.8N 68.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 25.2N 70.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 26.0N 72.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 26.5N 74.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 27.0N 77.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 27.5N 80.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 28.1N 81.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Dorian Graphics
2019-08-29 22:46:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2019 20:46:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2019 20:46:03 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-08-29 22:45:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DORIAN FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 29 the center of Dorian was located near 22.5, -67.7 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2019-08-29 22:45:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 292045 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 19(36) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 16(26) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 20(48) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 21(40) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 26(51) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 35(44) 22(66) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 16(32) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 32(38) 27(65) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 22(33) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 44(54) 22(76) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 21(45) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 14(23) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 41(78) 11(89) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 36(43) 16(59) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 14(37) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 46(66) 16(82) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 18(53) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 12(28) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) 39(86) 7(93) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 42(56) 13(69) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 31(36) 12(48) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 50(51) 35(86) 6(92) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 39(55) 11(66) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 27(33) 9(42) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 35(78) 8(86) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 31(42) 9(51) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 5(30) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 36(53) 12(65) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 8(34) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 5(19) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 32(46) 11(57) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 7(28) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 21(32) 10(42) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 12(35) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 34(40) 19(59) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 13(26) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 37(43) 23(66) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 18(32) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 31(36) 29(65) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 19(29) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 32(37) 30(67) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 23(35) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 31(60) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 23(32) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 24(36) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 74(79) 14(93) 2(95) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 46(46) 24(70) 3(73) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 27(51) 2(53) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 49(58) 8(66) 2(68) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 7(30) 1(31) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) 1(16) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 22(27) 10(37) 3(40) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 12(20) 4(24) 1(25) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 15(22) 9(31) 3(34) X(34) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYAGUANA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND TURK 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 22
2019-08-29 22:45:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 292045 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 ...DORIAN FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 67.7W ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM E OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northwestern and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of Dorian. Watches may be required for portions of this area on Friday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 67.7 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A west-northwestward to westward motion is forecast to begin by Friday night and continue into the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and on Friday, approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over portions of the northwest Bahamas on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday, and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into early next week: The central Bahamas...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. The northwestern Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells around the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should gradually diminish today. Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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