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Tropical Depression Chantal Public Advisory Number 12
2019-08-23 22:33:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 232033 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 PM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 ...CHANTAL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.0N 40.8W ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 170 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal was located near latitude 36.0 North, longitude 40.8 West. The depression is moving toward the south near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the southwest and west is expected over the weekend, followed by a slow motion toward the northwest Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Satellite imagery shows no organized shower activity associated with Chantal, and the system is expected to decay to a remnant low pressure area this evening. The remnant low could dissipate by late Sunday or Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 12
2019-08-23 22:33:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 232033 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 40.8W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 170 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 40.8W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 40.8W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.5N 41.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 35.3N 42.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 35.4N 43.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 35.7N 44.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.0N 40.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 11
2019-08-23 17:05:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 231504 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 Chantal is currently producing only small bursts of convection over the northern semicircle, and visible satellite imagery suggests that the low-level circulation is becoming less well defined. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt based on current satellite intensity estimates, but it is possible this is a little generous. A combination of dry air and large-scale subsidence is expected to prevent the return of persistent deep convection, and if current trends continue Chantal could degenerate to a remnant low later today or tonight. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by 72 h, which is unchanged from the previous forecast. The initial motion is now 155/6. There is little change to either the forecast philosophy or the forecast track from the previous advisory. The cyclone is embedded in the subtropical ridge, and the core of the ridge is forecast to shift from southwest to northeast of Chantal during the next couple of days. This evolution should cause Chantal or its remnants to make a clockwise half loop before the system dissipates. Like its predecessor, the new forecast track lies near the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 36.6N 40.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 35.8N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 35.3N 42.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0000Z 35.3N 43.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1200Z 35.5N 44.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Chantal Graphics
2019-08-23 16:37:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 14:37:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 15:24:23 GMT
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Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 11
2019-08-23 16:35:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 1500 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 40.8W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 155 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 40.8W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 40.9W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.8N 41.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 35.3N 42.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 35.3N 43.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 35.5N 44.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.6N 40.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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