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Summary for Hurricane Zeta (AT3/AL282020)
2020-10-28 15:49:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY IN THE WARNING AREAS LATER TODAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 the center of Zeta was located near 26.9, -91.7 with movement N at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
Hurricane Zeta Public Advisory Number 16
2020-10-28 15:49:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 281448 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Zeta Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 ...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY IN THE WARNING AREAS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 91.7W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City, Louisiana is discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida * Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to Walton/Bay County Line Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 91.7 West. Zeta is moving toward the north near 18 mph (30 km/h). A faster northward to north- northeastward motion is expected through tonight followed by an even faster northeastward motion on Thursday and an east-northeastward motion early Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will make landfall in southeastern Louisiana this afternoon. Zeta will then move close to the Mississippi coast this evening, and move across the southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next few hours, and Zeta is expected to reach the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane before weakening over the southeastern United States on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...6-9 ft Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...5-8 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne...5-7 ft Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...4-6 ft Mobile Bay...4-6 ft Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain...3-5 ft AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast by late today. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, and northern Georgia this evening through early Thursday morning, and into the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia on Thursday. Wind gusts could be especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains on Thursday. RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of and along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central Gulf Coast to the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and eastward into the southern to central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today through Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon through tonight over southeastern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-10-28 15:48:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 28 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 281448 TCMAT3 HURRICANE ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 1500 UTC WED OCT 28 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY...LOUISIANA IS DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO NAVARRE FLORIDA * LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...PENSACOLA BAY AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 91.7W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT.......120NE 130SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 91.7W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 91.8W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 30.1N 89.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 35.3N 83.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 39.1N 74.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 140SE 140SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 41.5N 63.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 210SE 210SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 91.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 28/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane Zeta (AT3/AL282020)
2020-10-28 12:41:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ZETA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY... As of 7:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 the center of Zeta was located near 26.0, -91.7 with movement N at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
Hurricane Zeta Public Advisory Number 15A
2020-10-28 12:41:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 281141 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 700 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 ...ZETA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 91.7W ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida * Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to Walton/Bay County Line Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 91.7 West. Zeta is moving toward the north near 17 mph (28 km/h). A faster northward to north-northeastward motion is expected to begin later this morning. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will approach the northern Gulf Coast this morning and make landfall in southeastern Louisiana this afternoon. Zeta will move close to the Mississippi coast this evening, and move across the southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast this morning, and Zeta is expected to reach the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane before weakening over the southeastern United States on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...6-9 ft Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne...5-7 ft Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border...3-5 ft Mobile Bay...4-6 ft Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain...3-5 ft AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast by late today, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area this afternoon. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and southern and central Alabama this evening and tonight. RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains in advance of Zeta will continue to expand and move north from the central Gulf Coast today, eventually affecting the Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians tonight and Thursday. Meanwhile, the core of heavy rains near Zeta will track from the central Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon through Thursday evening. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon through tonight over southeastern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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