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Hurricane Zeta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-10-29 03:57:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 29 Oct 2020 02:57:46 GMT
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Hurricane Zeta Public Advisory Number 18
2020-10-29 03:56:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 423 WTNT33 KNHC 290256 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Zeta Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 ...ZETA MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA WITH DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 88.7W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NE OF HATTIESBURG MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued for all of Louisiana, including Lake Borgne and Lake Pontchartrain. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to Navarre Florida * Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to Walton/Bay County Line Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 88.7 West. Zeta is moving toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h). An even faster northeastward motion is expected overnight through Thursday, then a rapid east-northeastward motion is anticipated through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move into southern Alabama soon and then move quickly across the southeastern eastern United States through Thursday before emerging offshore of Mid-Atlantic coast late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Zeta should decay into a tropical storm overnight and into a non-tropical gale-force low Thursday morning. The low should become absorbed by a frontal system over the western Atlantic on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). Mobile Regional Airport recently;y reported sustained winds of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 91 mph (146 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...4-7 ft Mobile Bay...4-6 ft Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border...3-5 ft AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to the Mouth of the Pearl River...1-3 ft Lake Maurepas, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Borgne...1-3 ft Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane or Tropical Storm conditions are expected to continue within the Warning areas near the northern Gulf Coast overnight. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, and northern Georgia this evening through early Thursday morning, and into the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia on Thursday. Wind gusts could be especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains on Thursday. RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of Zeta and along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central Gulf Coast to the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and east into the southern to central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic through Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight over parts of southern Alabama and the western Panhandle of Florida. An isolated tornado or two is possible tomorrow across much of the Carolinas and southern Virginia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Zeta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2020-10-29 03:56:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 29 2020 404 FONT13 KNHC 290256 PWSAT3 HURRICANE ZETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 0300 UTC THU OCT 29 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS ...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 29(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 44(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 28(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 46(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) WALLOPS CDA 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X 47(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) DANVILLE VA 34 X 48(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 22(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) NORFOLK VA 34 X 19(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 45(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) RALEIGH NC 34 X 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHARLOTTE NC 34 1 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ATLANTA GA 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) ATLANTA GA 50 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) AUGUSTA GA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 85 X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 40 X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONTGOMERY AL 50 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) WHITING FLD FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA FL 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) MOBILE AL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOBILE AL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GULFPORT MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GULFPORT MS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GULFPORT MS 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) STENNIS MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) STENNIS MS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA NAS 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) KEESLER AB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KEESLER AB 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-10-29 03:55:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 29 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 290255 TCMAT3 HURRICANE ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 0300 UTC THU OCT 29 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR ALL OF LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE BORGNE AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO NAVARRE FLORIDA * PENSACOLA BAY AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 88.7W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 27 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 130SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 210SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 88.7W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 89.9W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 35.5N 83.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 80SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 39.5N 73.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 180SE 180SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 42.5N 59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 240SE 240SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 88.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 29/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane Zeta (AT3/AL282020)
2020-10-29 03:05:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ZETA MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA WITH DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN... As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 the center of Zeta was located near 31.5, -88.7 with movement NE at 31 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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