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Hurricane Zeta Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2020-10-28 16:12:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 28 Oct 2020 15:12:37 GMT
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Hurricane Zeta Graphics
2020-10-28 15:50:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Oct 2020 14:50:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Oct 2020 15:25:19 GMT
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Hurricane Zeta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-10-28 15:50:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 28 Oct 2020 14:50:03 GMT
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Hurricane Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-10-28 15:50:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 281449 TCDAT3 Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 Zeta has a well-organized cloud pattern on satellite images, and the eye has been fairly well-defined. Strong upper-level outflow is evident over the northern semicircle of the hurricane. Reports from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the system had continued to strengthen over the past few hours. Peak 700-mb flight level winds were 89 kt, which equates to a maximum surface wind of about 80 kt, and The central pressure has fallen to 976 mb. Zeta still has a few hours to intensify before it begins to move over the cooler waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico, and southwesterly shear is likely to increase by the time the center reaches the coast. Even if a little weakening begins later today, however, Zeta should maintain hurricane strength through landfall. The official intensity forecast is near the high end of the model guidance. In 36 hours or so, the global models clearly depict the system as a frontal wave approaching the United States east coast so the official forecast shows an extratropical cyclone at that point and beyond. After 48 hours, the models show the low becoming elongated and absorbed into the frontal zone. The hurricane has turned northward and is now moving at around 010/16 kt. A strong 500-mb trough moving into Texas will continue to move eastward during the next 36-48 hours. The flow ahead of this trough will cause Zeta to accelerate north-northeastward and move inland along the central Gulf Coast in 6-12 hours. On Thursday, the cyclone will then move northeastward on the east side of the trough, at an even faster pace, over the southeastern United States. By early Friday, the system should move east- northeastward in the westerlies and into the western Atlantic as an extratropical cyclone. The official track forecast is close to the previous one and generally follows the dynamical model consensus. Given Zeta's acceleration near and after landfall, strong winds are likely to spread well inland over the southeastern U.S. this evening and early Thursday. KEY MESSAGES: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the northern Gulf Coast beginning later today, with the highest inundation occurring between Port Fourchon, Louisiana, and Dauphin Island, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. Overtopping of local, non-federal levee systems is possible within southeastern Louisiana outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected this afternoon and evening within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Alabama and far western Florida Panhandle coasts. 3. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and power outages, will spread well inland across portions of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern Virginia tonight and Thursday due to Zeta's fast forward speed. Wind gusts could be especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains on Thursday. 4. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, southern to central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 26.9N 91.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 30.1N 89.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1200Z 35.3N 83.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/0000Z 39.1N 74.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 30/1200Z 41.5N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Zeta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2020-10-28 15:49:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 28 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 281449 PWSAT3 HURRICANE ZETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 1500 UTC WED OCT 28 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS ...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 20(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X 57(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) ATLANTA GA 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ST MARKS FL 34 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 4 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 5 10(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 7 42(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) COLUMBUS GA 34 1 53(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) COLUMBUS GA 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 2 47(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) MONTGOMERY AL 34 4 84(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X 27(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WHITING FLD FL 34 11 66(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) WHITING FLD FL 50 1 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PENSACOLA FL 34 16 61(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) PENSACOLA FL 50 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 15 11(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) MOBILE AL 34 72 26(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) MOBILE AL 50 3 59(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) MOBILE AL 64 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GULFPORT MS 34 96 4(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GULFPORT MS 50 52 28(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) GULFPORT MS 64 7 19(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) STENNIS MS 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) STENNIS MS 50 77 6(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) STENNIS MS 64 19 6(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURAS LA 50 86 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) BURAS LA 64 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) GFMX 280N 890W 34 83 X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) GFMX 280N 890W 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 58 X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 910W 50 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) GFMX 280N 910W 64 17 X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) BATON ROUGE LA 34 27 X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) MORGAN CITY LA 34 52 X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) MORGAN CITY LA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 930W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 30 47(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) PENSACOLA NAS 50 2 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KEESLER AB 34 94 6(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KEESLER AB 50 41 40(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) KEESLER AB 64 4 17(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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