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Tropical Storm Henriette Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-08-13 04:50:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 130250 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Scatterometer data and visible satellite imagery indicate that Henriette has maintained a robust, compact low-level circulation despite the pulsing convection. In fact, three earlier ASCAT passes between 1613Z and 1728Z indicated reliable wind speeds of 37-38 kt, suggesting that Henriette could have been near 40 kt prior to those times. However, since 1800Z, northeasterly vertical wind shear and dry air intrusions have reduced and confined the overall convective pattern to just intermittent bursts in the southwestern quadrant. The initial intensity is being maintained at 35 kt based on the shear pattern, a UW-CIMSS ADT intensity estimate of T2.4/34 kt, and allowing for some slight spin down of the low-level vortex. The initial motion remains 290/11 kt. A west-northwestward motion is forecast to continue for the next 24 hours so, followed by a turn toward the west by early Wednesday as the weakening cyclone becomes vertically shallow and gets steered by the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The new NHC forecast track remains essentially unchanged and is just an extension of the previous advisory, and lies about midway between the consensus models HCCA and TVCE. Although the official intensity forecast calls for steady weakening, it is possible that Henriette could remain a tropical storm in 12 h due to the cyclone coming out of the convective maximum period and still located over SSTs between 26C and 26.5 deg C. However, by 18 h and beyond, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26C SSTs and into a drier environment, which is expected to result in significant weakening, with Henriette degenerating into a remnant low by late Tuesday and dissipating by late Wednesday. The official intensity forecast is identical to previous advisory and closely follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus intensity forecast models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 20.7N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 21.2N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 21.8N 118.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/1200Z 22.3N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Henriette (EP4/EP092019)
2019-08-13 04:50:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HENRIETTE STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY... As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 the center of Henriette was located near 20.7, -114.3 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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ep4ep092019
Tropical Storm Henriette Public Advisory Number 5
2019-08-13 04:50:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 130250 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henriette Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 ...HENRIETTE STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 114.3W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 114.3 West. Henriette is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn to the west on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Henriette is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by late Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Henriette Forecast Advisory Number 5
2019-08-13 04:50:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 13 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 130250 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019 0300 UTC TUE AUG 13 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 114.3W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 114.3W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 113.7W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.2N 116.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.8N 118.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.3N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 114.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Henriette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2019-08-13 04:50:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 13 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 130250 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019 0300 UTC TUE AUG 13 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART