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Summary for Subtropical Depression Andrea (AT1/AL012019)
2019-05-21 16:34:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ANDREA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue May 21 the center of Andrea was located near 30.8, -69.2 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Subtropical Depression Andrea Public Advisory Number 4
2019-05-21 16:34:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue May 21 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 211434 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Depression Andrea Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019 1100 AM AST Tue May 21 2019 ...ANDREA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 69.2W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression Andrea was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 69.2 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward the northeast and east is expected tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Andrea is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by this evening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Subtropical Depression Andrea Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-05-21 16:34:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 211434 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012019 1500 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 69.2W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 69.2W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 69.2W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 31.5N 67.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.7N 66.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 69.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Subtropical Storm Andrea Graphics
2019-05-21 10:37:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 21 May 2019 08:37:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 May 2019 08:37:01 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Andrea Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-05-21 10:35:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue May 21 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 210835 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Andrea Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019 500 AM AST Tue May 21 2019 During the past few hours, deep convection has waned considerably, likely due to the entrainment of dry mid-level from the south and modest southerly vertical wind shear as indciated by GOES-16 mid- and upper-level water vapor imagery. As mentioned in the previous advisory discussion, an earlier ASCAT overpass just barely caught 35-kt winds about 50-55 nmi northeast of the low-level center, which was likely just outside the radius of maximum winds. Since slightly stronger winds could have existed closer to the center, the initial intensity is being maintained at 35 kt for this advisory despite the aforementioned degradation in the convective pattern. The initial motion estimate is 360/05 kt. It appears that Andrea is slowing down, implying that a turn toward the northeast should occur within the next 6-12 h as a deep-layer trough and cold front steadily approach the cyclone from the northwest. The global and regional models remain in good agreement that Andrea will turn northeastward later today, and then move eastward by tonight and Wednesday when the cyclone becomes embedded within the approaching deep-layer mid-latitude westerly flow. The NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory and lies a little south of the middle of the track guidance envelope. Although deep convection has decreased markedly, thunderstorm activity should redevelop some by this afternoon and tonight when Andrea will be moving eastward over an SST thermal ridge and into a region of convective instability that exist between 65W-68W longitude. which will also be coincident with the vertical wind shear decreasing to less than 5 kt as per SHIPS model output. However, some slight spin down of the vortex will likely occur before convection can re-fire and re-strengthens the system. Thus, the intensity forecast essentially calls for little change in strength for the next 24 h or so, followed by weakening due to increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear, and then merger with a cold front on Wednesday. The official intensity forecast closely follows the IVCN consensus model and the weakening trend noted in the global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 30.0N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 30.7N 68.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 31.2N 66.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 31.3N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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