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Tropical Depression Rene Graphics

2020-09-09 04:52:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2020 02:52:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2020 02:52:51 GMT

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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Discussion Number 8

2020-09-09 04:51:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM CVT Wed Sep 09 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090251 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 200 AM CVT Wed Sep 09 2020 Rene's circulation remains fairly robust based on a 08/2148Z ASCAT-A overpass. However, the overall convective pattern has eroded significantly, and this is reflected in the ASCAT scatterometer wind data only showing surface winds of about 25 kt. Allowing for some undersampling, plus a recent increase in convection near the center, the intensity has only been lowered to 30 kt for this advisory. Rene remains beneath a pronounced upper-level anticyclone and outflow is fairly symmetrical in all quadrants. The initial motion is 285/14 kt. There continues to be no significant change to previous forecast track or reasoning. Rene is expected to move generally west-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next couple of days, followed by a decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the northwest on Friday and a motion toward the north on Saturday and Sunday. The latest NHC model guidance is in decent agreement on this developing steering flow pattern, thus the new NHC track forecast is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track and lies close to a blend of the consensus models TVCA, GFEX, and NOAA-HCCA. Although Rene has weakened, a burst of strong convection with cloud tops colder than -80C has developed over and to the west of the center, while a fragmented band of convection has formed in the northern semicircle. These features strongly suggest that Rene is poised to restrengthen soon. Sea-surface temperatures are expected to be 26.0-26.5 deg C in the 24-60 h period, which are only marginal for strengthening to occur. However, mid-level humidity values are forecast to be near 70 percent and the cyclone is expected to remain under a favorable upper-level anticyclone during that time. Given these factors, slow but steady intensification is forecast, with Rene still expected to become a hurricane in 2-3 days. Thereafter, strong westerly to west-northwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 25-30 kt is expected to cause Rene to weaken significantly on days 4 and 5. The new official intensity forecast is similar to but slightly lower than the previous intensity forecast, and is along the extreme upper portion of the guidance envelope and is above the intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 17.0N 29.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 17.5N 31.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 18.4N 33.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 19.3N 35.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 20.5N 38.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 22.1N 39.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 24.2N 41.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 28.5N 42.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 30.2N 40.3W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Depression Rene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2020-09-09 04:50:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 090250 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Advisory Number 8

2020-09-09 04:50:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 090250 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 29.3W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 29.3W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 28.6W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.5N 31.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.4N 33.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.3N 35.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.5N 38.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.1N 39.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.2N 41.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 28.5N 42.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 30.2N 40.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 29.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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