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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 27A
2021-08-20 07:55:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 200555 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 27A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 100 AM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ...GRACE RE-STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 92.6W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Progresso to Campeche * The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 92.6 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general westward motion is expected early this morning, followed by a westward to west-southwestward motion at a slower speed beginning later today. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to move across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today, and then make landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico this evening or tonight. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Grace is re-strengthening. Maximum sustained winds are now near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely until Grace makes landfall, and the system is expected to regain hurricane strength later this morning. After landfall, Grace should weaken rapidly as it moves into the mountains of central Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. An automated observing site on Cayo Arenas, located about 120 miles (190 km) northeast of the center of Grace, has reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h) within the past few hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by late this afternoon. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...an additional to 3 inches of rain overnight, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. Lingering areas of flash and urban flooding will be possible through early this morning. Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in areas of flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area along the immediate coast of mainland Mexico near and to the north of where the center makes landfall tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: High surf generated by Grace will begin to affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 27
2021-08-20 04:59:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 200258 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 ...GRACE BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 91.8W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula east of Progresso. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Progresso to Campeche * The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 91.8 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general westward motion is expected tonight, followed by a general westward to west-southwestward motion at a slower speed beginning on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to move across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Friday, and then make landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico late Friday or Friday night. Reports from NOAA and Air Force reserve Hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely until Grace makes landfall, and the system is expected to regain hurricane strength on Friday. After landfall, Grace should weaken rapidly as it moves into the mountains of central Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...an additional to 3 inches of rain overnight, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. Lingering areas of flash and urban flooding will be possible into early Friday morning. Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maxim totals of 18 inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in areas of flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area along the immediate coast of mainland Mexico near and to the north of where the center makes landfall Friday night. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: High surf generated by Grace will begin to affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline on Friday and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 27
2021-08-20 04:58:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 200258 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EAST OF PROGRESSO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PROGRESSO TO CAMPECHE * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL TORDO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 91.8W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......140NE 50SE 40SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 60SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 91.8W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 91.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.8N 93.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 60SE 50SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.7N 95.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.1N 98.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.6N 100.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 91.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 17
2021-08-20 04:55:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 200255 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 ...HENRI HOLDING ON AGAINST SHEAR AND MAINTAINING 65-MPH WINDS... ...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 72.3W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Henri. Watches will likely be required for a portion of this area early Friday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 72.3 West. Henri is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A sharp turn to the northwest and north is anticipated on Friday, followed by an acceleration to the north and north-northeast on Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Henri will remain well offshore of the east coast of the United States over the next couple of days, but it is forecast to be near or over southern New England on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 hours, but Henri is forecast to intensify into a hurricane by Friday night with additional strengthening expected this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches over southeastern New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 8 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in areas of flash, urban, and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada on Friday and into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 17
2021-08-20 04:53:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 938 WTNT23 KNHC 200253 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA EARLY FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 72.3W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 72.3W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 72.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 30.3N 73.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 31.8N 73.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 34.4N 72.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.6N 71.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 40.1N 70.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.7N 70.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 42.5N 70.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 43.7N 65.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 72.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN
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