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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 15
2021-08-19 16:34:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 191434 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 1500 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 70.5W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 70.5W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 70.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 29.7N 71.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 30.4N 72.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 31.9N 72.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 34.4N 72.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.3N 70.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.6N 70.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 41.6N 69.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 42.3N 67.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 70.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred Public Advisory Number 40
2021-08-19 16:25:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021
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Hurricane Grace Public Advisory Number 24A
2021-08-19 13:47:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 191147 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 24A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 700 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 ...GRACE MOVING INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THERE TODAY... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 87.9W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF VALLADOLID MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero, including Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Campeche * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern coast Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla de la Juventud * The coast of mainland Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Puerto de Altamira A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A hurricane warning will likely be required for portions of the Watch area later this morning or afternoon. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in eastern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 87.9 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A general westward to west- northwestward motion is expected through Friday, followed by a general westward to west-southwestward motion. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to move across the Yucatan Peninsula today, and move over the southwest Gulf of Mexico late tonight through Friday. The hurricane will likely make a second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late Friday or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Grace is expected to continue to weaken as it crosses Yucatan, but re-intensification is expected when the center reaches the Gulf of Mexico. Grace is expected to be a hurricane when it makes its second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). A Weatherflow station located at Cancun, Mexico, recently measured a gust to 67 mph (108 km/h) and another Weatherflow site at Xcaret measured a gust to 57 mph (92 km/h). The Cancun Airport reported a gust to 60 mph (97 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next hour or two and are spreading inland. Tropical storm conditions will continue this morning along the coast and will spread across the rest of the northern Yucatan Peninsula today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in mainland Mexico by late Friday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in mainland Mexico by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area for the next several hours. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding. Over central to northern Veracruz, northern Puebla and into Hidalgo... 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and will also be capable of producing mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center made landfall in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, and along the eastern mainland coast of Mexico Friday night or early Saturday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica and the Cayman Islands to the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Grace Public Advisory Number 24
2021-08-19 10:55:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 190855 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Grace Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 ...GRACE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF COZUMEL AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE SPREADING ONSHORE NOW... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 87.2W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero, including Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Campeche * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern coast Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla de la Juventud * The coast of mainland Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Puerto de Altamira A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A hurricane warning will likely be required for portions of the Watch area later this morning or afternoon. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in eastern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 87.2 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A general westward to west- northwestward motion is expected through Friday, followed by a general westward to west-southwestward motion. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to make landfall in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula during soon, move across the Yucatan Peninsula today, and move over the southwest Gulf of Mexico late tonight through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is still possible before landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. Grace is expected to weaken as it crosses Yucatan, but re-intensification is expected when the center reaches the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). A Weatherflow station located at Cancun, Mexico, recently measured a sustained wind of 56 mph (88 km/h) and a gust to 79 mph (127 km/h), while another Weatherflow station located at Puerto Morelos, Mexico, recently measured a sustained wind of 51 mph (83 km/h) a gust to 70 mph (113 km/h). On Cozumel, a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) was observed at the Cozumel Lighthouse, while a sustained wind of 40 mph (77 km/h) and a gust to 64 mph (103 km/h) were measured by a Weatherflow site near the airport. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few hours, and tropical storm conditions are continuing to spread onshore. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will spread inland across the Yucatan Peninsula during the day today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in mainland Mexico by late Friday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in mainland Mexico by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area for the next several hours. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding. Over central to northern Veracruz, northern Puebla and into Hidalgo... 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and will also be capable of producing mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula later this morning, and along the eastern mainland coast of Mexico Friday night or early Saturday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica and the Cayman Islands to the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 14
2021-08-19 10:54:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 190854 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM AST Thu Aug 19 2021 ...HENRI FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY... ...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 69.5W ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Henri. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 69.5 West. Henri is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Friday, followed by an acceleration toward the north and north-northeast Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Henri will remain well offshore the east coast of the United States over the next couple of days but could approach southeastern New England on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada later this week and this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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