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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 31A
2021-07-08 01:49:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 072349 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 31A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 800 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 ...ELSA OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND VERY HEAVY RAIN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.4N 82.7W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of St. Mary's River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach * Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore * New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 82.7 West. Elsa is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward northeast is expected overnight, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, and move near or over the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday. Doppler radar and surface data indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 100 miles (160 km) generally southeast of the center near the Atlantic coast. A WeatherFlow station on Jekyll Island, Georgia recently reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) with a gust to 58 mph (93 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches) based on surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast tonight and along the South Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Thursday night and Friday. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Across northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...additional 1 to 3 inches through tonight, with storm total amounts of 4 to 8 inches. Localized maximum storm totals up to 12 inches across southwest Florida. Additional heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with continued rises to minor and isolated moderate flood. Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches will be possible this evening into Thursday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight through Thursday night, which could lead to limited flash and urban flooding. Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This could lead to limited flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into eastern South Carolina. The tornado threat should move into the eastern Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 31
2021-07-07 22:56:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 072056 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 ...ELSA MOVING INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA ACCOMPANIED BY VERY HEAVY RAINS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 83.4W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WSW OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor to the eastern tip along the north shore. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of southern New England from New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket. All warnings have been discontinued along the Florida Gulf coast. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach * Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore * New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 83.4 West. Elsa is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected this evening, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, and move near or over the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. Moody Air Force Base near Valdosta, Georgia, has recently reported a wind gust to 41 mph (66 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast by late today or tonight and along the South Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Thursday night and Friday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Suwannee River to Aucilla River...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Across northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...additional 1 to 3 inches through tonight, with storm total amounts of 4 to 8 inches. Localized maximum storm totals up to 12 inches across southwest Florida. Additional heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with continued rises to minor and isolated moderate flood. Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches will be possible this evening into Thursday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight through Thursday night, which could lead to limited flash and urban flooding. Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This could lead to limited flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into eastern South Carolina. The tornado threat should move into the eastern Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Papin/Brown
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 31
2021-07-07 22:56:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 072056 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO SAGAMORE BEACH...MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET. ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER...GEORGIA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND * DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH * LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE * NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO SAGAMORE BEACH...MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 83.4W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 83.4W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 83.5W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.8N 82.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 35.6N 79.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 38.8N 75.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 42.0N 70.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 46.0N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 50.0N 57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 83.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 30A
2021-07-07 19:53:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 071753 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 30A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 200 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 ...ELSA INLAND AND WEAKENING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 83.5W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All warnings have been discontinued south of the Suwannee River, Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from the Suwannee River to the Aucilla River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River * Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in southeastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 83.5 West. Elsa is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected this evening, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, and move near or over the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue along the Gulf coast of Florida in the warning area today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast by late today or tonight and along the South Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Thursday night and Friday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Suwannee River to Aucilla River...2 to 4 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Suwannee River including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...1 to 3 ft Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Across western and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum storm totals up to 9 inches today, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Across eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into eastern South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday. SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the west coast of Florida through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Papin/Brown
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 30
2021-07-07 16:59:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 071459 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 ...CENTER OF ELSA MAKING LANDFALL IN TAYLOR COUNTY ALONG THE NORTH FLORIDA GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 83.6W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM WSW OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All warnings south of Aripeka, Florida, have been discontinued. The hurricane warning along the west coast of Florida has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Storm Surge Watch for the Florida Gulf coast has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward along the mid-Atlantic coast to Sandy Hook, New Jersey, including the Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach, the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island, and Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Aripeka to the Aucilla River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Aripeka to Ochlockonee River * Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in southeastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 83.6 West. Elsa is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a generally northward motion is expected to continue through this afternoon. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected late this afternoon or tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to move inland into Florida this afternoon. The storm should then move across the southeastern and mid-Atlantic United States through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected as Elsa moves further inland this afternoon into tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. An unofficial weather station at Horseshoe Beach, Florida recently measured a sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) gusting to 71 mph (114 km/h). Earlier, a C-MAN station at Cedar Key, Florida measured a sustained wind of 44 mph (71 km/h) gusting to 59 mph (95 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue along the Gulf coast of Florida in the warning area today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast by late today or tonight and along the South Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Thursday night and Friday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Aripeka, FL to Aucilla River...2 to 4 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Aripeka, FL including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...1 to 3 ft Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Across western and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum storm totals up to 9 inches today, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Across eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into eastern South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday. SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the west coast of Florida through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Papin/Brown
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