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Tropical Depression Six-E Public Advisory Number 1
2021-07-14 10:34:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 140834 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 112.8W ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 112.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed through Thursday night. A turn toward the west is expected on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and to be near hurricane strength by Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-07-14 10:34:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 14 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 140834 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0900 UTC WED JUL 14 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 112.8W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 112.8W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 112.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.9N 114.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.5N 117.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.8N 119.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.7N 120.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.6N 121.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.5N 123.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 15.5N 126.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 15.5N 131.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 112.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Public Advisory Number 39
2021-07-09 22:42:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Jul 09 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 092042 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM AST Fri Jul 09 2021 ...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED... ...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST US THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.0N 69.5W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SE OF PORTLAND MAINE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All remaining Tropical Storm Warnings for the northeastern U.S. coast have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: None. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa was located near latitude 43.0 North, longitude 69.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Elsa will continue to move offshore the northeastern United States coast through this evening. The system is expected to move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight and Saturday. Surface observations during the past several hours indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Elsa is forecast to dissipate over the north Atlantic by Sunday afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Gusty winds will continue across portions of the southern New England coast during the next couple of hours. The post-tropical cyclone is also expected to bring gusty winds to portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday. RAINFALL: Across coastal Maine...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible through this evening, which could result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Isolated minor to moderate river flooding is also expected. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa, please visit the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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elsa
Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 39
2021-07-09 22:38:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 092038 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL REMAINING TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.0N 69.5W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 30 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 270SE 180SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.0N 69.5W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.0N 71.0W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 46.2N 64.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 50.3N 56.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 54.7N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.0N 69.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Public Advisory Number 38A
2021-07-09 19:42:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021 400 WTNT35 KNHC 091742 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 38A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.0N 71.0W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for all of Long Island and the coast of New England west of Watch Hill, Rhode Island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Watch Hill Rhode Island to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning area, please see products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Satellite, radar, and surface observations indicate that Elsa has lost its tropical characteristics and has become a post-tropical cyclone. At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa was located by surface and radar data over southeastern Massachusetts near latitude 42.0 North, longitude 71.0 West. Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Elsa will move near the coast of southeastern Massachusetts this afternoon, and then move offshore the northeastern United States coast by this evening. The system is expected to move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is expected today. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to gradually weaken over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) primarily to the east and southeast of the center. A WeatherFlow site at Kalmus Beach near Hyannis, Massachusetts recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a gust to 62 mph (100 km/h). An unofficial observing site near Falmouth, Massachusetts reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/) gusting to 49 mph (80 km/h). A wind gust to 48 mph (78 km/h) has been observed at the Nantucket Airport. NOAA buoy 44020 in Nantucket Sound measured a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (90 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface data is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area over the northeastern U.S. coast through mid- afternoon. Elsa is expected to bring gusty winds to portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday after it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. RAINFALL: Across southern and coastal New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible through today, which could result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Isolated minor river flooding is also expected. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa, please visit the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky
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