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Hurricane Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-07-02 17:57:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 021557 CCA TCMAT5 HURRICANE ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 CORRECTED TO ADD 64-KT WIND RADII AT 48 H CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO ENGANO TO BAHIA DE MANZANILLO. THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES * SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * MARTINIQUE * DOMINICA * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT AU PRINCE * JAMAICA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES * SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO BAHIA DE MANZANILLO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 61.2W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 61.2W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 59.8W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.6N 64.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.3N 69.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.8N 73.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.3N 76.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.7N 78.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.1N 80.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 26.0N 82.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 30.6N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 61.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Elsa Public Advisory Number 9
2021-07-02 17:25:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 021501 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Elsa Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 ...CENTER OF ELSA PASSING NEAR ST. VINCENT AND ST. LUCIA... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 61.2W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF ST. VINCENT ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic. The Meteorological Service of the Dominican Republic has issued a Hurricane Watch for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti, a Tropical Storm Warning for the south coast from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the north coast from Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo. The Government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for Jamaica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique * Dominica * The southern coast of Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti * The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * South coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and Sint Eustatius * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 61.2 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, with some decrease in forward speed expected Sunday night. On the forecast track, Elsa will move away from the Windward Islands during the next several hours, move across the eastern Caribbean Sea later today and tonight, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola late Saturday or Saturday night. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba, and move near portions of central and western Cuba Sunday night and early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Some decrease in winds is possible on Monday as Elsa interacts with Cuba. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The Hewanorra Airport on St. Lucia recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 79 mph (127 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in the Windward Islands for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the tropical storm warning areas and are possible in the tropical storm watch areas later today. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Haiti by late Saturday and are possible in the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic by late Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible on Jamaica late Saturday or Sunday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area in the Windward Islands and 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the southern coast of Hispaniola. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches today across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches is expected late today into Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is possible Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the Caribbean Sea during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Elsa Public Advisory Number 8
2021-07-02 14:22:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 830 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 021222 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Elsa Special Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 830 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 ...ELSA STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.. SUMMARY OF 830 AM AST...1230 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 60.1W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF BARBADOS ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Warning for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has issued a Hurricane Warning for St. Lucia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * The southern coast of Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti * Entire coast of Haiti A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and Sint Eustatius * Jamaica * Dominica A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today, including Hurricane Warnings for portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 830 AM AST (1230 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 60.1 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands this morning, move across the eastern Caribbean Sea late today and tonight, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba. Reports from Barbados indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). Barbados recently reported sustained winds of 74 mph (119 km/h) and a wind gust of 86 mph (138 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). Barbados recently reported a pressure of 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring on Barbados, and are expected in the hurricane warning area in the Windward Islands in the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the tropical storm warning areas and are possible in the tropical storm watch areas later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Saturday, with hurricane conditions possible in southern Haiti. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Jamaica Saturday night or early Sunday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area in the Windward Islands and along the southern coast of Hispaniola. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches today across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches is expected late today into Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is possible Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-07-02 14:22:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1230 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 021222 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ELSA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1230 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT...AND THE GRENADINES. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES * SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS * JAMAICA * DOMINICA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY...INCLUDING HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 60.1W AT 02/1230Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 60.1W AT 02/1230Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 57.3W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.8N 62.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.4N 67.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.1N 71.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.7N 75.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 77.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.7N 79.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 25.2N 82.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 29.2N 82.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 60.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 7
2021-07-02 10:49:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 544 WTNT35 KNHC 020849 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 ...ELSA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AND IS VERY NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THERE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 58.6W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the entire coast of Haiti, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the southern portion of the country from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * The southern coast of Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti * Entire coast of Haiti A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and Sint Eustatius * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 58.6 West. Elsa is moving quickly toward the west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands this morning, move across the eastern Caribbean Sea late today and tonight, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast over the next 12 to 24 hours, followed by little change in strength. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas and possible in the watch areas later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Saturday, with hurricane conditions possible in southern Haiti. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Jamaica Saturday night or early Sunday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Hispaniola. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches today across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches is expected late today into Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is possible Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg
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