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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-07-01 22:51:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 012051 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE LE ST. NICHOLAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES * THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE LE ST. NICHOLAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI... EASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 53.8W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 53.8W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 52.6W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.1N 57.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.5N 62.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.1N 67.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.7N 71.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.3N 75.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.8N 77.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N 82.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 26.5N 83.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 53.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 5
2021-07-01 22:46:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 012046 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 ...ELSA STILL MOVING RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HAITI... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.2N 53.8W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the southern and western coasts of Haiti from the southern border of the Dominican Republic to Le Mole le St. Nicholas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Grenada and its dependencies * The southern and western coasts of Haiti from the southern border of the Dominican Republic to Le Mole le St. Nicholas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, eastern Cuba, and Jamaica should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later tonight and Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 53.8 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Lesser Antilles on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Haiti on Saturday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Hispaniola. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches on Friday across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches is expected Friday into Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. Along portions of southern Hispaniola, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is possible on Saturday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 4A
2021-07-01 19:45:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 011745 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 200 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 ...ELSA NOW MOVING RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.6N 52.6W ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Guadeloupe. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 52.6 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h). An even faster motion toward the west-northwest is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By early Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near portions of eastern Cuba. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km), mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas on Friday. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 10 inches on Friday across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches are expected Friday into Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 4
2021-07-01 16:48:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 011447 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 ...ELSA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT RACES TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.1N 51.4W ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 51.4 West. Elsa is moving toward the west near 28 mph (44 km/h). An even faster motion toward the west-northwest is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By early Sunday Elsa is forecast to move near portions of eastern Cuba. Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km), mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas on Friday. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 10 inches on Friday across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches are expected Friday into Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-07-01 16:47:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 011447 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 51.4W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 51.4W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 50.2W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.2N 54.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.6N 59.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.1N 64.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.9N 69.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.6N 73.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.3N 76.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 22.0N 80.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 25.6N 82.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 51.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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