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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-11-14 15:56:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 141456 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 1500 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 20.2W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 300SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 20.2W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 20.6W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.6N 19.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.7N 18.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 32.4N 17.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 33.7N 17.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 36.1N 16.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 20.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 4
2020-11-14 09:39:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 140838 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 ...IOTA MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... ...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 74.8W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota, and a Hurricane Watch will likely be issued later today for portions of these countries. Interests in San Andres and Providencia should also monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 74.8 West. Iota is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A westward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to begin later today and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the central Caribbean Sea during the next day or so, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is likely over the weekend, and Iota is forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches Central America. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm). Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm). SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-11-14 09:38:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 140838 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0900 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IOTA...AND A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTRIES. INTERESTS IN SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 74.8W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 74.8W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 74.5W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.6N 75.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.9N 76.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.3N 78.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.5N 80.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.8N 82.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.9N 83.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 14.5N 86.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 14.0N 89.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 74.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 18
2020-11-14 09:36:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 140836 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020 ...THETA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 20.8W ABOUT 540 MI...875 KM SE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 20.8 West. Theta is moving toward the east near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday. A sharp northward turn is forecast to occur Sunday night, with that motion continuing into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Theta is expected to become a remnant low by later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km), mainly southeast through southwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-11-14 09:35:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 140835 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0900 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 20.8W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 330SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 20.8W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 21.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.8N 19.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.8N 18.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 32.2N 17.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 33.2N 17.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.9N 16.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 37.2N 15.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 20.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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