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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 28
2020-11-07 16:00:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 105 WTNT34 KNHC 071500 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 AM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 ...ETA REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS THE CENTER REFORMS TO THE NORTHEAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 81.8W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for south Florida from Golden Beach to Chokoloskee, including Florida Bay, as well as for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect along the Florida east coast north of Sebastien Inlet to the Brevard/Volusia county line. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida west coast north of Bonita Beach to Englewood. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cayman Islands * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas. * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence. * Florida coast from Golden Beach to Chokoloskee, including Florida Bay. * The Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth. * Florida east coast north of Golden Beach Florida to the Brevard/Volusia county line * Florida west coast north of Chokoloskee to Englewood * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 81.8 West. Eta is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). An east-northeast to northeast motion is expected through early Sunday. A turn toward the north and northwest are expected by Sunday afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will approach the Cayman Islands later today, be near central Cuba tonight and Sunday, and near the Florida Keys or south Florida Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. Grand Cayman Island recently reported estimated sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on observations from Grand Cayman Island is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Thursday morning: Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10 inches (200 to 400 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (650 mm). The Bahamas and portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm). Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Marco Island, FL to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-3 ft Florida Keys...2-3 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...2-3 ft North Miami Beach, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands this afternoon and evening, in the warning area sin Cuba tonight and Sunday, in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and in south Florida and the Florida Keys late Sunday and Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba tonight and Sunday and in the watch area in Florida by late Sunday or early Monday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday evening and Sunday night over south Florida and the Keys SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 28
2020-11-07 15:59:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 071459 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO CHOKOLOSKEE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIEN INLET TO THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS. * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. * FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO CHOKOLOSKEE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. * FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH FLORIDA TO THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE * FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 81.8W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 81.8W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 83.2W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.8N 80.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.5N 79.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.8N 79.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 80.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.8N 81.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.2N 83.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 28.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 81.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Eta Public Advisory Number 27
2020-11-07 09:43:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 560 WTNT34 KNHC 070843 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 ...ETA FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 84.9W ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the northwestern Bahamas. The Tropical Storm Watch along the east coast of Florida has been extended northward to Sebastian Inlet. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cayman Islands * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas. * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth. * Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Keys * Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 84.9 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). An east-northeast to northeast motion at a faster forward speed is expected through early Sunday. A turn toward the north and northwest are expected by Sunday afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will approach the Cayman Islands later today, be near central Cuba tonight and Sunday, and near the Florida Keys or south Florida Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again later today, with further strengthening likely through Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Thursday morning: Portions of Central America: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua. Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated storm totals of 25 inches (650 mm). The Bahamas and portions of the Florida peninsula, including the Keys: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The threat of life-threatening flooding will continue across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Marco Island, FL to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-3 ft Florida Keys...2-3 ft North Miami Beach, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands this afternoon and evening, in the warning area in Cuba tonight and Sunday, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba tonight and Sunday and in the watch area in south Florida and the Florida Keys by late Sunday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday evening and Sunday night over south Florida and the Keys. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Advisory Number 27
2020-11-07 09:42:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 070842 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SEBASTIAN INLET. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS. * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA Y MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. * SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA BEACH * LAKE OKEECHOBEE * FLORIDA KEYS * FLORIDA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 84.9W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 84.9W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 85.5W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.3N 82.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.7N 80.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.6N 80.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.8N 80.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.9N 81.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.5N 83.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 26.0N 84.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 27.3N 85.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 84.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Eta Public Advisory Number 26A
2020-11-07 06:41:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2020 109 WTNT34 KNHC 070541 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 26A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2020 ...ETA FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 85.7W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cayman Islands * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth. * Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Keys * Florida Bay * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the depression. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm Watches could be required for some of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), satellite data indicate that the the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 85.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected through early Sunday. A turn toward the north and northwest are expected by Sunday afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will approach the Cayman Islands later today, be near central Cuba tonight and Sunday, and near the Florida Keys or south Florida late Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again later today, with further strengthening likely through Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Wednesday morning: Portions of Central America: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua. Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm), isolated maximum totals of 25 inches (650 mm). The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The threat of life-threatening flooding will continue across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Bahamas, and southern Florida. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Marco Island, FL to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-3 ft Florida Keys...2-3 ft North Miami Beach, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands this afternoon and evening, and in the warning area in Cuba tonight and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba tonight and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the northwestern Bahamas, south Florida, and the Florida Keys within the watch area beginning Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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