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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 41

2020-09-22 10:59:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 220859 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 23.7W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 70SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 23.7W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 24.4W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 35.1N 21.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 35.4N 19.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 35.8N 17.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.6N 16.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 34.9N 16.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 34.3N 17.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 33.3N 21.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 23.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Lowell Public Advisory Number 7

2020-09-22 10:58:57| Tropical Depression LIDIA

...LOWELL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... Location: 18.0°N 115.6°W Max sustained: 45 mph Moving: WNW at 13 mph Min pressure: 1001 mb Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020

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Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Advisory Number 7

2020-09-22 10:58:26| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020

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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 41

2020-09-22 10:58:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 220858 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 ...PAULETTE MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.7N 23.7W ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 23.7 West. Paulette is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). An east or east-northeast motion at a slower forward speed is expected through Wednesday. Paulette is then expected to turn southward and southwestward Wednesday night and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Paulette is expected to become post-tropical by Wednesday night or Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 19

2020-09-22 10:56:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 220856 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 ...BETA EXPECTED TO STALL INLAND OVER TEXAS TODAY... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 96.7W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNW OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF MATAGORDA TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued east of Sabine Pass. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Sargent Texas to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Sabine Pass A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 96.7 West. Beta is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). Beta is expected to stall inland over Texas today but will then begin to move slowly toward the east-northeast tonight. An east-northeast to northeast motion with increasing forward speed is expected Wednesday through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will move inland over southeastern Texas through Wednesday and then over Louisiana and Mississippi Wednesday night through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but Beta is likely to begin weakening by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) was recently reported at Victoria, Texas. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Ocean Springs, MS including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Baffin Bay, TX to Sargent, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within portions of the tropical storm warning area today. RAINFALL: For the middle and upper Texas coast, additional rainfall of 6 to 12 inches with isolated storm totals up to 20 inches is expected. Significant flash and urban flooding is occurring and will continue today. Minor river flooding is likely. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week. Flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as isolated minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur today near the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts. SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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