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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 39
2020-09-22 04:47:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 220247 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND TEDDY STRONGER... ...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.6N 61.5W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Meat Cove to Tidnish * North of Digby to Fort Lawrence * Magdalen Islands * Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland * Prince Edward Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be required on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 61.5 West. Teddy is moving toward the north near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this motion is expected overnight followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. Teddy should turn toward the north-northeast and move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday then over the Gulf of St. Lawrence late Wednesday into Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy could gain a little more strength overnight, but should weaken steadily by Wednesday and become a strong post-tropical cyclone near Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas late Tuesday or early Wednesday. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 18
2020-09-22 04:47:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 220247 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 ...CENTER OF BETA NEARING THE TEXAS COAST... ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS COASTAL AREA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 96.3W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM SW OF MATAGORDA TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas, Texas to Sabine Pass, Texas including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 96.3 West. Beta is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue tonight. A slow north and northeast motion are expected on Tuesday, and a faster east-northeastward motion should begin Tuesday night and continue Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will move inland overnight. Beta is forecast to remain near or just offshore the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated on Tuesday as Beta moves just inland along the Texas coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. A WeatherFlow observing site at Matagorda Bay, Texas, has reported sustained winds of 41 mph (67 km/h) with a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h) this evening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Aransas, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass, TX to Ocean Springs, MS including Sabine Lake, Lake Calcasieu, Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within portions of the tropical storm warning area through Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Friday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week. Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as isolated minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur through Tuesday near the middle to upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast. SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-09-22 04:46:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 220246 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS TO SABINE PASS...TEXAS INCLUDING COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...AND GALVESTON BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 96.3W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 0SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 96.3W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 96.1W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 28.6N 96.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 28.8N 96.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.1N 95.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.5N 93.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.4N 92.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.7N 90.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 96.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 40
2020-09-22 04:34:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 220234 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 ...PAULETTE REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 25.3W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 25.3 West. Paulette is moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Tuesday night. A much slower eastward or east-southeastward motion is expected by late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through early Tuesday. Gradual weakening should begin by late Tuesday and continue through Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 40
2020-09-22 04:34:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 220234 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 25.3W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 70SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 25.3W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 26.2W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 34.4N 22.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 34.7N 20.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 35.1N 18.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.3N 16.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 34.7N 16.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 34.0N 16.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 33.1N 18.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 25.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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