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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-08-22 16:54:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 221454 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN YUCATAN COAST SOUTH OF CANCUN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA * CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARCO. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 85.3W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 10SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 85.3W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 85.1W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.1N 86.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.9N 87.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.6N 88.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.2N 89.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 28.5N 91.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.1N 93.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 29.3N 96.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 85.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 22/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 11
2020-08-22 16:42:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 221442 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 ...LAURA BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 66.8W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, and Granma. The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued for St. Maarten, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, and the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti * The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque * The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic * The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The central Bahamas * Cuban provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, and Granma A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and in the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Laura. Tropical storm warnings and additional watches will likely be issued for portions of central and eastern Cuba later today and tropical storm watches may be needed for the Florida Keys later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 66.8 West. Laura is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a generally west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near Puerto Rico this morning, near or over Hispaniola this afternoon and tonight, and near or over eastern Cuba Sunday and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. A Weatherflow station located at Isla Culebrita recently reported a wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h). Another Weatherflow station at Sandy Point on the Island of St. Croix recently reported a wind gust to 41 mph (66 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Monday: Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 8 inches possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes. Dominican Republic and Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches across southern areas. Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 8 inches. This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater Antilles. Widespread minor to potential moderate river flooding is possible in Puerto Rico. 1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches, is expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos, southeast Bahamas and Jamaica. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area today through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday night. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba, and much of the Bahamas during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-08-22 16:41:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 221441 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR ST. MAARTEN...ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS * CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LAURA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA LATER TODAY AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 66.8W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 66.8W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 66.1W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.6N 69.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.4N 72.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 50SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.9N 76.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.4N 80.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.7N 83.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.2N 86.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 27.9N 90.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 31.6N 92.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 66.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 10A
2020-08-22 13:47:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 221147 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 800 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 ...DISORGANIZED LAURA CONTINUES TO MOVE NEAR EASTERN PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 66.0W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti * The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque * The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic * The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Cuba should monitor the progress of Laura. Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches will likely be issued for portions of central and eastern Cuba later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 66.0 West. Laura is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a generally west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near Puerto Rico this morning, near or over Hispaniola this afternoon and tonight, and near or over eastern Cuba Sunday and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, the southern Haitian Peninsula and eastern Cuba through Sunday. Maximum amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti, the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico. 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches are expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area this morning through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday night. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba, and much of the Bahamas during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Marco Public Advisory Number 8A
2020-08-22 13:46:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 221146 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 700 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS MARCO CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 85.2W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 85.2 West. Marco is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest and west-northwest early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Marco will approach the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico today. The center will approach the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula by early evening and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday followed by a track toward the northwestern Gulf coast Tuesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days as the system approaches the Yucatan peninsula, and Marco could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. Marco's center moved just to the west of NOAA buoy 42056, which recently reported a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area this afternoon and will spread northward and westward within the warning area tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by this evening. RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Far western Cuba: 1 to 3 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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