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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-08-24 04:55:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 240254 CCA TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 CORRECTED TO REMOVE THE DRY TORTUGAS FROM THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS... FLORIDA. THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF HAITI. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO KEY WEST THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 76.6W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 76.6W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 75.7W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.1N 79.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 22.5N 82.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 23.8N 85.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 25.3N 88.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.1N 90.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.2N 92.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 34.2N 90.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 37.4N 83.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 76.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-08-24 04:51:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 240251 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR.... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA * OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * CAMERON TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 87.6W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 87.6W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 87.6W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.0N 88.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.0N 90.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.6N 92.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 29.8N 93.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.7N 94.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 87.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 17
2020-08-24 04:47:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 240247 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...LAURA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE NEAR EASTERN CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA.... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 76.6W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas, Florida. The government of Haiti has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for all of Haiti. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 76.6 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over the southern coast of Cuba tonight and Monday, and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura is expected to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and Laura is forecast to become a hurricane by early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Western Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches. Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches, maximum amounts of 6 inches. Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Northwest Bahamas: 1 to 2 inches. Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides. From late Wednesday into Friday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams and tributaries to overflow their banks, and the possibility of some minor river flooding to this region. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward within the warning area in Cuba through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Little Cayman, Cayman Brac, and the Dry Tortugas on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area in the Florida Keys Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and the Florida Keys on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado is possible across far southern Florida on Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Marco Public Advisory Number 14A
2020-08-24 01:57:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 968 WTNT34 KNHC 232357 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Marco Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 700 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...MARCO EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.4N 87.6W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for.... * Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Morgan City Louisiana * Ocean Springs Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans * Cameron to west of Morgan City A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marco was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 87.6 West. Marco is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Marco is forecast to move generally north-northwestward to northwestward tonight and approach the Louisiana coast Monday afternoon. It is then forecast to turn westward and move near or over the coast through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Small fluctuations in strength are possible tonight. Gradual weakening is expected to begin on Monday, and Marco could become a remnant low by Tuesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City LA...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Intracoastal City...1-3 ft Ocean Springs MS to the AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by midday Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Monday, and hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch areas late Monday. RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches across the Central U.S. Gulf coast through Tuesday. This rainfall may result in scattered areas of flash and urban flooding along the Central U.S. Gulf Coast. SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado is possible early Monday morning near the southeast Louisiana coast. Isolated tornadoes are possible across southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle Monday and Monday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 16A
2020-08-24 01:51:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 232351 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...LAURA NOW LOCATED OVER EASTERN CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN CUBA, HAITI, AND JAMAICA.... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 75.6W ABOUT 30 MI...55 KM W OF GUANTANAMO CUBA ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Inagua and the Ragged Islands in the southeastern Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Entire coast of the Haiti * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West and the Dry Tortugas The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 75.6 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over the southern coast Cuba tonight and Monday, and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura is expected to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday. The maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast while Laura moves near the southern coast of Cuba tonight and Monday. However, strengthening is forecast after the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is forecast to become a hurricane late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. An observation in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, recently measured sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a wind gust to 44 mph (71 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches. Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches, maximum amounts of 6 inches. Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas: 1 to 2 inches. Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides. By later Wednesday into Friday Laura is expected to produce rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Haiti through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Cuba later tonight through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area in the Florida Keys Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and the Florida Keys on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado is possible across far southern Florida on Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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