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Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 4A
2020-08-21 13:39:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 211139 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 84.2W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla Honduras * Bay Islands of Honduras * Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 84.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue this morning. A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected by this afternoon and is forecast to continue through at least Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the system will move near or just offshore the coast of northern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, today and approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center is then expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. Some weakening is expected as it traverses the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night. Afterward, restrengthening is forecast on Sunday as it moves offshore and enters the southern Gulf of Mexico The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the watch area by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coasts of northeastern Honduras and northern Nicaragua within the warning area this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread westward along the coast of Honduras within the warning area today. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. Eastern Honduras and the Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches. Northeast Nicaragua: 1 to 2 inches NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Public Advisory Number 6
2020-08-21 10:48:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 210848 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 ...DEPRESSION APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 58.5W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands, as well as for the Turks and Caicos Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of this system, as additional tropical storm watches or warnings will be required for portions of those areas later today. Interests in Cuba and the remainder of the Bahamas should also monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 58.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and near or north of Hispaniola Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is likely to become a tropical storm by the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides. Some rivers may overflow their banks. 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area later today through Saturday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-08-21 10:48:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 210848 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0900 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND... LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THOSE AREAS LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 58.5W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 58.5W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 57.4W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.1N 60.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.8N 64.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.7N 67.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.6N 71.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.8N 74.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.2N 78.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 26.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 30.0N 87.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 58.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 4
2020-08-21 10:43:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 210843 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 ...DEPRESSION APPROACHING THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 83.1W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NNE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla Honduras * Bay Islands of Honduras * Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 83.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue this morning. A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected by this afternoon and continuing through at least Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the system will move near or just offshore the coasts of northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, today and approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center is then expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. Some weakening is expected as it traverses the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night. Afterward, restrengthening is forecast on Sunday as it moves offshore and enters the southern Gulf of Mexico The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the watch area by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coasts of northeastern Honduras and northern Nicaragua within the warning area this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread westward along the coast of Honduras within the warning area today. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. Eastern Honduras and the Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches. Northeast Nicaragua: 1 to 2 inches NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-08-21 10:43:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 211 WTNT24 KNHC 210843 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0900 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS * BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS * PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER * PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 83.1W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 83.1W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 82.7W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.3N 84.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.7N 85.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.2N 86.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.7N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.5N 88.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 24.5N 90.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 28.1N 93.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 30.4N 94.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 83.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 21/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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