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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-07-24 16:57:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 241457 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 1500 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES * ST. LUCIA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TOBAGO * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 54.2W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 54.2W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 53.3W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 10.5N 56.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.4N 59.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 12.4N 62.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 13.0N 65.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.7N 69.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.0N 72.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 54.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 12
2020-07-24 16:57:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 287 WTNT32 KNHC 241457 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 ...GONZALO ACCELERATES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 54.2W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * St. Lucia A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tobago * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 54.2 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward- to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands tonight and then move across the islands on Saturday and over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. There is considerable uncertainty in the intensity forecast, but some strengthening is still possible during the next day or so before Gonzalo reaches the southern Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea, and the cyclone is expected to dissipate by the middle of next week. Gonzalo is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area on Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible on Saturday within the Hurricane Watch area. RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in Trinidad and Tobago as well as 1 to 2 inches over northeastern Venezuela. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-07-24 16:56:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 241456 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 1500 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 93.2W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 93.2W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 92.8W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 27.5N 94.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 27.4N 96.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.3N 97.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.0N 99.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.3N 100.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.7N 101.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 93.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Hanna Public Advisory Number 7
2020-07-24 16:56:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 241456 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hanna Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE HANNA HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.2N 93.2W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM E OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch from San Luis Pass to High Island Texas has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to San Luis Pass Texas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Interests along the Texas and Louisiana coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located by NOAA reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 93.2 West. Hanna is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion should continue today. A turn toward the west is expected tonight, followed by a westward to west-southwestward motion through the weekend. On the forecast track, center of Hanna should make landfall along the Texas coast within the warning area Saturday afternoon or evening. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected until the tropical cyclone makes landfall. Steady weakening is expected after Hanna moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. During the past few hours, a ship located east of the center reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h). Reports from the NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Hanna can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area by tonight or Saturday morning. RAINFALL: Hanna is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches through Sunday night in south Texas. This rain may result in life-threatening flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor to moderate river flooding in south Texas. 3 to 5 inches of rain is expected along the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts, and inland to the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and northern Tamaulipas. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island including Corpus Christi Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. SURF: Swells generated by Hanna are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 11A
2020-07-24 13:55:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 241155 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 800 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 ...GONZALO FORECAST TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 52.8W ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Lucia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tobago * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), satellite data indicated that the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 52.8 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands tonight and then move across the islands on Saturday and over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and there is still a chance that Gonzalo could become a hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea, and the cyclone is expected to dissipate by the middle of next week. Gonzalo is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area on Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible on Saturday within the Hurricane Watch area. RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands tonight through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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