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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Advisory Number 3

2020-07-23 16:49:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 231449 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 90.7W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 90.7W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 90.3W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.7N 91.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.4N 93.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 27.8N 94.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 28.0N 96.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 28.0N 98.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.9N 99.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 27.5N 101.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 27.0N 103.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 90.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Douglas Public Advisory Number 13

2020-07-23 16:46:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 231446 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 AM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 ...DOUGLAS MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A CATEGORY-3 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 135.9W ABOUT 1335 MI...2150 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Douglas. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Douglas was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 135.9 West. Douglas is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a gradual decrease in forward speed and a slight turn toward the west. Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Douglas is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible today before a gradual weakening starts on Friday and continues through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 13

2020-07-23 16:45:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 231445 TCMEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOUGLAS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 135.9W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..165NE 135SE 135SW 135NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 135.9W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 135.1W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.5N 138.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.8N 141.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.0N 144.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.1N 147.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.1N 150.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.8N 153.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.7N 159.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 165.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 135.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 8

2020-07-23 16:45:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 231445 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 ...GONZALO FACES AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE... ...BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.6N 48.3W ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for some of these islands later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 48.3 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands Friday night and move across the islands Saturday and Saturday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Gonzalo could become a hurricane tonight or on Friday. Gonzalo is a small storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Saturday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by midday Saturday. RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands from Friday night through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 8

2020-07-23 16:44:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 231444 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 48.3W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 48.3W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 47.7W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 9.8N 50.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 10.1N 52.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 10.5N 55.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.2N 59.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 11.9N 62.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.6N 65.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 14.0N 71.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 15.5N 77.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.6N 48.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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