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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2016-07-07 10:42:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 07 2016 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 070842 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 0900 UTC THU JUL 07 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 110.2W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 110.2W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 109.8W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.7N 111.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 12.8N 112.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 12.9N 114.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 13.1N 115.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 13.1N 119.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 14.0N 123.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 15.6N 127.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 110.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Graphics
2016-07-07 04:36:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Jul 2016 02:36:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Jul 2016 02:35:52 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOUR-E (EP4/EP042016)
2016-07-07 04:34:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 the center of FOUR-E was located near 12.4, -109.9 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Public Advisory Number 2
2016-07-07 04:34:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT WED JUL 06 2016 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 070234 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 900 PM MDT WED JUL 06 2016 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 109.9W ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 590 MI...945 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was estimated near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 109.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected on Thursday, and this motion should continue for the next 2 days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2016-07-07 04:34:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 07 2016 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 070234 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 0300 UTC THU JUL 07 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CLIPPERTON IS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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