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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Graphics
2016-07-12 11:11:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 12 Jul 2016 08:46:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 12 Jul 2016 09:05:12 GMT
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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-07-12 10:49:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 120849 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 300 AM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Satellite images indicate little overall change to the depression during the past several hours. Convection has been flaring up and down without any apparent increase in organization. A pair of ASCAT passes showed maximum winds of 25 to 30 kt, so the initial wind speed will stay 30 kt. The initial motion has turned west-northwestward, and recently the depression may even be moving due westward. A westward or west- southwestward course is expected for the next 2-3 days due to a building ridge over the eastern Pacific. Thereafter the system should resume a track toward the west or west-northwest, with some differences noted in the strength of the ridge at long range. Overall, the model consensus has generally shifted southward by about 30 n mi at most time intervals, and the official forecast will follow that trend. The intensity forecast is tricky since it is becoming more related to the track forecast. While the overall environment looks conducive for strengthening for a few days, the southward shift in the cyclone's predicted path increases the chances that the system encounters the cool wake of Blas and Celia. For now it is expected to stay just to the north, so only a slight reduction is made to the previous official forecast. The latest forecast is similar to the intensity consensus for the first couple days, and remains above that at longer range, mostly out of respect for a rather low-shear environment forecast by the global models by late week. It is worth noting, and probably should be no surprise, that the intensity guidance has a rather wide range for this forecast, with the GFS-based COAMPS-TC model showing no significant strengthening and the HWRF model making the cyclone a hurricane in 36 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 15.8N 107.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 15.9N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 15.7N 110.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 15.5N 113.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 15.5N 115.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 15.9N 119.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 16.6N 123.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 17.5N 127.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2016-07-12 10:46:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 12 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 120846 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 0900 UTC TUE JUL 12 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression FIVE-E (EP5/EP052016)
2016-07-12 10:45:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Jul 12 the center of FIVE-E was located near 15.8, -107.6 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Public Advisory Number 3
2016-07-12 10:45:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 120845 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 300 AM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 107.6W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 107.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). The cyclone should turn toward the west and move at a faster forward speed over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today, and could become a hurricane by Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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