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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-08-13 04:48:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 130248 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 Late afternoon GOES-16 visible satellite images showed that the circulation associated with the low pressure located northeast of the Bahamas had become better defined. Since that time, the night-time microphysics RGB product and other infrared satellite pictures have continued to show an improvement in the circulation, and recent ASCAT data show that the system has acquired a well- defined center. Deep convection is organized in a large curved band, however the center is located near the western edge of the band. NOAA buoy 41046 located southeast of the center reported 25 to 30 kt winds earlier this evening, and the scatterometer data support an initial wind speed of 30 kt. The depression is moving north-northwestward or 330/11 kt. The depression should move north-northwestward to northward around the western side of a deep-layer ridge over the central Atlantic through Sunday night. It is expected to reach the mid-latitude westerlies by late Monday and begin to accelerate northeastward ahead of a short-wave trough that will be approaching the northeastern United States. The steering currents are well established over the western Atlantic and the track guidance is in good agreement on the forecast scenario. The NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus aids. The intensity forecast is more problematic. The system is expected to traverse warm water and remain in a low-shear environment during the next day or so, but intrusions of dry mid-level air are likely to limit strengthening. The statistical guidance and the HWRF favor more significant intensification than the global models, which generally do not show much deepening. In deference to the global models, the NHC forecast is below the consensus, especially later in the period. The system is likely to become extratropical in 3 to 4 days, and the extratropical portion of the forecast is based on guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 25.3N 70.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 27.0N 71.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 29.0N 71.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 30.7N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 32.2N 71.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 36.2N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 41.5N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 18/0000Z 45.5N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eight (AT3/AL082017)
2017-08-13 04:44:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO REMAIN EAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 the center of Eight was located near 25.3, -70.3 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eight Public Advisory Number 1
2017-08-13 04:44:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 130244 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 ...DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO REMAIN EAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.3N 70.3W ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM NE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 70.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday. A turn toward the north is forecast on Sunday night, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight or on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Eight Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2017-08-13 04:44:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 13 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 130244 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082017 0300 UTC SUN AUG 13 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Advisory Number 1
2017-08-13 04:43:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 13 2017 000 WTNT23 KNHC 130243 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082017 0300 UTC SUN AUG 13 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 70.3W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 70.3W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 69.7W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 27.0N 71.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 29.0N 71.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 30.7N 72.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 32.2N 71.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 36.2N 66.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 41.5N 54.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 45.5N 39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 70.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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