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Tropical Depression SIX Graphics
2017-07-31 11:54:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 31 Jul 2017 09:54:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 31 Jul 2017 09:54:18 GMT
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Tropical Depression SIX Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-07-31 11:54:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 600 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 310954 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Six Special Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 600 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Radar imagery from the NWS Tampa Bay WSR-88D indicates that shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the small low pressure area over the eastern Gulf of Mexico have persisted and become better organized overnight. Earlier ASCAT data showed that the system has a well-defined circulation and winds of at least 30 kt over a small area to the north and northwest of the center. Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on a 30-kt tropical depression. The depression is currently embedded within an area of moderate to strong northwesterly shear. Although the upper-level winds could become a little more favorable for strengthening, the depression is expected to move inland over the west-central Florida peninsula later today, and no significant change in wind speed is predicted. After the depression moves over the western Atlantic, increasing westerly shear is forecast to prevent intensification. This scenario is in agreement with the GFS and ECMWF models, which show the system weakening and likely dissipating in 3 to 4 days, or perhaps sooner. The depression is moving eastward at about 7 kt. The cyclone is embedded within the southern portion of a deep-layer trough that extends southwestward along the U.S. east coast. This pattern should steer the system eastward today, then northeastward with some increase in forward speed through dissipation. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement on this scenario, although there are some differences in how fast the system will accelerate northeastward. For now, the NHC forecast lies between the faster HWRF and GFS solutions, and the slower ECMWF. The primary threat with this system is expected to be locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Florida peninsula during the next couple of days. Due to the uncertainty in the intensity forecast, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the west- central coast of Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1000Z 27.7N 83.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 27.7N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 28.3N 80.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 29.8N 78.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 31.6N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 34.5N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression SIX Forecast Advisory Number 1
2017-07-31 11:48:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 UTC MON JUL 31 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 310948 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062017 1000 UTC MON JUL 31 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE ANCLOTE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANCLOTE RIVER TO ENGLEWOOD FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 83.5W AT 31/1000Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 83.5W AT 31/1000Z AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 84.0W FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 27.7N 82.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 28.3N 80.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 29.8N 78.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 31.6N 76.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.5N 72.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 83.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression SIX (AT1/AL062017)
2017-07-31 11:48:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA... As of 6:00 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 the center of SIX was located near 27.7, -83.5 with movement E at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression SIX Public Advisory Number 1
2017-07-31 11:48:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 600 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 310948 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six Special Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 600 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 83.5W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM WNW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the west coast of Florida from the Anclote River southward to Englewood. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River to Englewood Florida A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 600 AM EDT (1000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 83.5 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northeast and an increase in forward speed are expected tonight or Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move inland over the central Florida peninsula later today and move across central Florida through tonight. The depression is forecast to move offshore of the east-central Florida coast early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through Monday night along the west coast of central Florida between the Tampa Bay area and Naples, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches possible. Elsewhere across central and south Florida, 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected with localized amounts of up to 4 inches possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area through this afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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