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Tropical Storm LISA Forecast Discussion Number 6
2016-09-21 04:41:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 210241 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 Deep convection has increased in coverage near and to the northeast of the center of Lisa this evening. Although the exact center has been difficult to pinpoint in infrared satellite images, it appears that it is located near the southwestern edge of the convection due to some southwesterly shear. Satellite intensity estimates still support a wind speed of around 40 kt, so the initial intensity is unchanged for this advisory. Lisa has about 24 hours over warm water and in a marginally conducive upper-level wind environment in which to strengthen. After that time, an upper-level low to Lisa's northwest is expected to produce strong southwesterly shear over the cyclone, which should cause weakening. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for peak intensity in about 24 hours, followed by steady weakening thereafter. The official forecast is near the upper-end of the guidance at 24 hours, but is slightly lower than the consensus after that time. The somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate is 315/9 kt. The track forecast appears to be fairly straight forward as Lisa should continue moving northwestward during the next several days toward a break in the subtropical ridge. Late in the forecast period, the cyclone should turn northward ahead of a deepening mid- to upper-level trough over the west-central Atlantic. The dynamical models are in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is near a blend of the typically better performing ECMWF and GFS models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 17.1N 31.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 17.8N 32.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 18.6N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 19.4N 35.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 20.6N 36.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 23.6N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 26.5N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0000Z 31.0N 43.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm LISA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2016-09-21 04:40:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 21 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 210240 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 0300 UTC WED SEP 21 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm LISA (AT3/AL132016)
2016-09-21 04:40:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LISA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 20 the center of LISA was located near 17.1, -31.7 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm LISA Public Advisory Number 6
2016-09-21 04:40:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 210240 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 ...LISA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 31.7W ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 31.7 West. Lisa is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, with steady weakening expected to begin by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm LISA Forecast Advisory Number 6
2016-09-21 04:40:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 21 2016 000 WTNT23 KNHC 210240 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 0300 UTC WED SEP 21 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 31.7W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 80SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 31.7W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 31.4W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.8N 32.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.6N 34.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.4N 35.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.6N 36.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.6N 39.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 26.5N 42.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 31.0N 43.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 31.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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