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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 32
2014-09-19 10:51:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 190850 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0900 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.8N 38.5W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 100SE 80SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 160SE 150SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..280NE 280SE 280SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.8N 38.5W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 38.9W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 39.7N 37.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 130SE 80SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.7N 35.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 130SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.5N 33.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 38.5N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 120SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 34.5N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.8N 38.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Graphics
2014-09-19 04:37:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 19 Sep 2014 02:37:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 19 Sep 2014 02:35:42 GMT
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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 31
2014-09-19 04:36:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 190236 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014 Edouard has not changed much during the past several hours. Microwave images indicate that the low-level center is located on the western side of the main area of deep convection due to about 30 kt of westerly shear. Despite being in a strong shear environment and over cool waters, an ASCAT pass just before 0000 UTC indicated that Edouard has not weakened significantly. Maximum reliable winds seen in the ASCAT data are in the 55 to 60 kt range, and dropsonde wind reports from the NASA Global Hawk suggest a similar intensity. Therefore, the initial wind speed is held at 60 kt for this advisory. The storm is expected to remain in hostile conditions, therefore, steady weakening is anticipated and Edouard is forecast to become post-tropical in about 24 hours. The global models show the post-tropical cyclone degenerating into a trough by 96 hours, and this is reflected in the official forecast. Satellite fixes suggest that Edouard is moving eastward at about 15 kt on the north side of a subtropical high. A continued eastward motion with a decrease in forward speed is predicted for the next day or so, followed by a turn to the southeast when the cyclone becomes embedded in the flow between the subtropical high and a deep layer low over the northeast Atlantic Ocean. The NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the north of the previous one, and lies very close to the multi-model consensus, TVCA. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii were updated based on the ASCAT pass and the NASA Global Hawk dropsonde data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 39.9N 39.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 39.9N 37.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 39.9N 36.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 20/1200Z 40.0N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 21/0000Z 39.5N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 22/0000Z 36.0N 29.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2014-09-19 04:35:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 190235 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0300 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 25(37) 5(42) X(42) X(42) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)
2014-09-19 04:35:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EDOUARD STILL A STRONG TROPICAL STORM... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 18 the center of EDOUARD was located near 39.9, -39.2 with movement E at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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