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Hurricane Laura Graphics
2020-08-26 10:58:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Aug 2020 08:58:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Aug 2020 09:24:54 GMT
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Hurricane Laura Forecast Discussion Number 26
2020-08-26 10:58:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 260858 TCDAT3 Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 400 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 Satellite images indicate that Laura has become a formidable hurricane since yesterday evening. Deep convection has intensified and become more symmetric, with an eye now trying to clear out. An earlier Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission found flight-level winds of 104 kt, along with peak SFMR values of 86 kt, which supported the 90-kt intensity on the intermediate advisory. Since that time, however, the cloud pattern has only continued to improve, so the initial wind speed is set to 95 kt for this advisory. Notably, the aircraft also recorded that the extent of the hurricane-force winds have increased substantially northeast of the center. A pair of Hurricane Hunter planes should be in the area within a couple of hours. The hurricane has intensified a remarkable 40 kt during the past 24 hours, and there are no signs it will stop soon, with shear remaining low-to-moderate over the deep warm waters of the central Gulf of Mexico. Guidance is noticeably higher than before, so the new peak intensity will be raised to 115 kt, and some models are even a little higher. Increasing shear is expected to slightly weaken the hurricane close to landfall, so the new forecast keeps the previous 105-kt intensity near the coast. Laura will weaken rapidly after landfall, but it will likely bring hurricane-force winds well inland over western Louisiana and eastern Texas. In the extended range, there is some chance that Laura re-intensifies as a tropical cyclone off the Mid-Atlantic coast, instead of becoming part of a frontal system, but for now the forecast will stay extratropical at 96 hours and beyond. Recent satellite shows that Laura has turned northwestward, now estimated at 13 kt. There are no substantial changes to the track forecast to report. The hurricane should gradually turn toward the northwest and north over the next day or two as it moves around the western periphery of a mid-level high. The models are in very good agreement on the center of Laura moving into extreme southwestern Louisiana or southeastern Texas in about 24 hours, so no changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. Later in the forecast period the weakened cyclone should turn toward the east-northeast and move with increasing forward speed while embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is shifted southward at longer range, not too far from the latest consensus track model predictions. It should be mentioned Laura is now a large hurricane, and wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Do not use the cone graphic for any representation of these hazards, it is just for the center uncertainty. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge with large and dangerous waves is expected to produce potentially catastrophic damage from San Luis Pass, Texas, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, including areas inside the Port Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection system. This surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion as water levels will begin to rise later today. 2. Hurricane-force winds are expected tonight in the warning area from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, and the strongest winds associated with Laura's eyewall will occur somewhere within this area. Hurricane-force winds and widespread damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday. 3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and roadways is expected to begin this afternoon into Thursday from far eastern Texas, across Louisiana and Arkansas. This will also lead to minor to isolated moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat and localized flash and urban flooding potential will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Friday night and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 26.1N 90.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 27.4N 92.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 29.7N 93.5W 105 KT 120 MPH...NEAR COAST 36H 27/1800Z 32.4N 93.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 28/0600Z 34.8N 92.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 28/1800Z 36.4N 91.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 29/0600Z 37.3N 87.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 30/0600Z 38.0N 74.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/0600Z 44.0N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Laura Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2020-08-26 10:57:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 260857 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LAURA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0900 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GULFPORT MS 34 2 6( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) STENNIS MS 34 3 9(12) 10(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) BURAS LA 34 5 8(13) 7(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) GFMX 280N 890W 34 23 4(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) JACKSON MS 34 X 8( 8) 13(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 5 22(27) 12(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 97 X(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) GFMX 280N 910W 50 75 2(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) GFMX 280N 910W 64 11 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BATON ROUGE LA 34 4 50(54) 13(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MORGAN CITY LA 34 18 53(71) 4(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) MORGAN CITY LA 50 2 11(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 2 56(58) 30(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X 15(15) 36(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) LAFAYETTE LA 34 6 79(85) 5(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X 41(41) 11(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) NEW IBERIA LA 34 11 75(86) 4(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) NEW IBERIA LA 50 1 39(40) 8(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 930W 34 95 5(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 930W 50 78 20(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) GFMX 280N 930W 64 37 50(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 19(19) 48(67) 2(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X 1( 1) 32(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) SHREVEPORT LA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 2 71(73) 22(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) FORT POLK LA 50 X 35(35) 44(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) FORT POLK LA 64 X 7( 7) 42(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) LAKE CHARLES 34 4 91(95) 3(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) LAKE CHARLES 50 X 78(78) 14(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) LAKE CHARLES 64 X 49(49) 25(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) CAMERON LA 34 20 79(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAMERON LA 50 2 90(92) 3(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) CAMERON LA 64 X 77(77) 6(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) JASPER TX 34 2 68(70) 21(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) JASPER TX 50 X 31(31) 39(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) JASPER TX 64 X 9( 9) 37(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) KOUNTZE TX 34 2 76(78) 10(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) KOUNTZE TX 50 X 41(41) 23(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) KOUNTZE TX 64 X 18(18) 19(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 3 88(91) 3(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X 69(69) 10(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X 41(41) 16(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) GALVESTON TX 34 5 66(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) GALVESTON TX 50 1 26(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) GALVESTON TX 64 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HOUSTON TX 34 2 34(36) 11(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) HOUSTON TX 50 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HOUSTON TX 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) AUSTIN TX 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FREEPORT TX 34 2 25(27) 5(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) FREEPORT TX 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 9 24(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) GFMX 280N 950W 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 3 81(84) 2(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 1 45(46) 6(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X 20(20) 4(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) MATAGORDA TX 34 3 12(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MATAGORDA TX 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ROCKPORT TX 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 250N 960W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEESLER AB 34 4 6(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Hurricane Laura (AT3/AL132020)
2020-08-26 10:57:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LAURA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...FORECAST TO PRODUCE A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA LATER TODAY... As of 4:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 the center of Laura was located near 26.1, -90.7 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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Hurricane Laura Public Advisory Number 26
2020-08-26 10:57:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 260857 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 400 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 ...LAURA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...FORECAST TO PRODUCE A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.1N 90.7W ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.72 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Freeport to San Luis Pass Texas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass * East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 90.7 West. Laura is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion should continue today, and a north-northwestward motion is forecast tonight. On the forecast track, Laura should approach the Upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts on this evening and move inland near those areas tonight or Thursday morning. Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Laura is forecast to become a category 4 hurricane today, and is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after Laura makes landfall. Laura is becoming a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.73 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sea Rim State Park to Intracoastal City including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...10-15 ft Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12 ft Port Bolivar to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft Morgan City to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft San Luis Pass to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft Galveston Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Freeport to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. This storm surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: From this afternoon through Friday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast from western Louisiana to far eastern Texas, and northward into much of Arkansas. Over the lower to middle Mississippi Valley from central Louisiana into western Tennessee and Kentucky, and southeastern Missouri, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated totals of 6 inches are expected. This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. By late Friday into Saturday, portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valley could see 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts as tropical moisture from Laura moves through the region. This rainfall could lead to localized flash and urban flooding along small streams. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late today or tonight, and are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Thursday. Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this evening through tonight over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and southwestern Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes should continue into Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi. SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast from the west coast of Florida to Louisiana and are expected to reach the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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