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Hurricane Rick Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-10-23 17:30:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 231530 CCA TCDEP2 Hurricane Rick Discussion Number 5...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Corrected to show dissipated at 27/1200Z Rick continues to quickly become better organized on satellite images, with a growing Central Dense Overcast surrounded by a well-defined convective band wrapping almost completely around the circulation. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 65 kt at around 1200 UTC and with the steady strengthening trend underway, the advisory intensity is set at 70 kt. Upper-outflow is prominent over all quadrants of the cyclone. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Rick later today to provide additional intensity and structure information. Latest high-resolution visible satellite images indicate that the hurricane is moving a little faster toward the north-northwest, or at about 345/6 kt. Rick is expected to move between north-northwest and north, through a weakness in the mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge, during the next couple of days. There continues to be significant spread in the track guidance models with the GFS being the easternmost and fastest, taking Rick on a mainly northward track. The ECMWF is slower and farther west, and some other models are even slower and farther west over southwestern Mexico or just off the coast. The official track forecast is, again, shifted somewhat to the east of the previous one and generally follows the HCCA consensus prediction. As noted earlier, the atmospheric and oceanic environment for Rick appears to be very conducive for intensification during the next 24-36 hours, with low shear, high mid-level moisture, and high oceanic heat content. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index continues to show a high probability of Rapid Intensification into Sunday, and this is reflected in the official intensity forecast, which is near the upper end of the guidance. In 36 to 48 hours, increasing shear and drier air could cause the strengthening trend to end or even result in some weakening. Based on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings for portions of the southwest coast of Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Rick is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of southern Mexico by Sunday night or Monday, and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo. There is larger-than-normal uncertainty in the track forecast of Rick, and the arrival time of hazardous conditions within the watch area could change significantly with future forecasts. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials and check updates to the forecast. 2. Rick is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico as early as Sunday from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and by Monday morning from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan starting later today, and could persist through Monday night. This rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 14.7N 101.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 15.4N 101.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 16.0N 102.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 16.8N 102.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 18.0N 102.5W 90 KT 105 MPH...ON THE COAST 60H 26/0000Z 19.6N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 26/1200Z 20.5N 103.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Rick Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-10-23 17:28:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 23 2021 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 231528 CCA TCMEP2 HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172021 1500 UTC SAT OCT 23 2021 CORRECTED TO SHOW DISSIPATED AT 27/1200Z CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO...AND WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO * WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 101.5W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 101.5W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 101.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.4N 101.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.0N 102.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.8N 102.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.0N 102.5W...ON THE COAST MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.6N 103.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.5N 103.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 101.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 23/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Rick Public Advisory Number 5
2021-10-23 16:46:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 231446 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Rick Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 101.5W ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo. The government of Mexico has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 101.5 West. Rick is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A north-northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will approach the coast of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Rick is expected to become a major hurricane on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Sunday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning areas by Sunday afternoon. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan from tonight through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Rick will begin to affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Rick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-10-23 16:46:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 23 2021 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 231446 PWSEP2 HURRICANE RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172021 1500 UTC SAT OCT 23 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 105W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 14(23) X(23) X(23) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 20(26) 14(40) X(40) X(40) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 1 12(13) 51(64) 24(88) 4(92) X(92) X(92) L CARDENAS 50 X 2( 2) 20(22) 33(55) 6(61) X(61) X(61) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 26(33) 4(37) X(37) X(37) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 19(20) 47(67) 15(82) 2(84) X(84) X(84) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X 2( 2) 22(24) 19(43) 2(45) X(45) X(45) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 100W 34 2 5( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ACAPULCO 34 1 5( 6) 9(15) 5(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) ACAPULCO 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Rick Public Advisory Number 4A
2021-10-23 13:46:43| Tropical Depression LIDIA
...RICK BECOMES A HURRICANE... Location: 14.3°N 101.5°W Max sustained: 75 mph Moving: NNW at 6 mph Min pressure: 990 mb Issued at 700 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021
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