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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 14
2021-10-13 16:46:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 13 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 131446 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 1500 UTC WED OCT 13 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA. ALL OTHER TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA NOW. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 106.0W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 120SE 70SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 210SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 106.0W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.6N 102.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 106.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 13/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Hurricane Pamela Public Advisory Number 13A
2021-10-13 13:59:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 131159 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Pamela Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 600 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 ...PAMELA MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST MEXICAN COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED WITHIN WARNING AREA THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 106.8W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes * Islas Marias A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are occurring within the warning area now. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area now. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Pamela was making landfall on the west-central coast of Mexico near Estacion Dimas estimated at latitude 23.7 North, longitude 106.8 West. Pamela is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of Pamela will move farther inland over western Mexico later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast as the center moves farther inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). A wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h) was recently observed at Mazatlan Airport, Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Pamela can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near Pamela's landfall location in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area for the next few hours, with tropical storm conditions continuing to spread over portions of the coast. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela or its remnant is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa, western Durango, and northern Nayarit...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will continue to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula, as well as southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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Hurricane Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-10-13 10:48:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 130848 TCDEP1 Hurricane Pamela Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Although Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have not changed, recent imagery indicates that the center is more involved with the deep convection than it was earlier, suggesting that at least some strengthening has taken place. Moreover, an excellent ASCAT-B scatterometer pass from around 0500 UTC showed a couple of 53 to 54 kt wind vectors, which is likely an undersampling of the peak intensity. On this basis, the estimated intensity of Pamela is increased slightly to 65 kt, so the system is once again a hurricane. Since the tropical cyclone is close to landfall and the upper-level winds are not conducive for much more strengthening, little change in intensity is likely until the center crosses the coast. Rapid weakening will occur after the center moves inland, and the official forecast may be a little on the high side given the mountainous terrain that the system will traverse. Center fixes from geostationary imagery and the scatterometer indicate that Pamela is now moving faster toward the northeast, or at about 045/12 kt. Additional acceleration is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours while the cyclone is embedded in the deep-layer southwesterly flow between a ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico and a broad trough over the west-central United States. The official forecast track has been shifted a little to the southeast of the previous one, but still moves Pamela across the coast of Mexico withing the Hurricane Warning area this morning. Later today and tonight, the rapidly weakening cyclone should move over central and northern Mexico. By 36 hours, the global models show the system losing its identity. The official forecast track is close to the simple and corrected consensus model solutions. Although Pamela is likely to dissipate over the rugged terrain of Mexico, deep moisture associated with the system's remnants are likely to spread over north-central and northeastern Mexico on Wednesday, and then move into portions of the south-central United States later today or Thursday. Key Messages: 1. Pamela is forecast to make landfall on the west-central coast of Mexico this morning, and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to continue to move into the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango today. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma later today or Thursday. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 22.8N 107.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 24.5N 105.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 14/0600Z 27.4N 101.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Pamela Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2021-10-13 10:46:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 13 2021 251 FOPZ11 KNHC 130846 PWSEP1 HURRICANE PAMELA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0900 UTC WED OCT 13 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAMELA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CULIACAN 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAZATLAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAZATLAN 50 63 X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Pamela Public Advisory Number 13
2021-10-13 10:46:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 130846 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Pamela Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 ...PAMELA REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH WHILE ITS CENTER NEARS THE COAST... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 107.6W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes * Islas Marias A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Pamela was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 107.6 West. Pamela is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of Pamela will make landfall in west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area later this morning and move inland over western Mexico later today. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected until Pamela reaches the coast of west-central Mexico this morning. Rapid weakening will occur after the center moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). A wind gust of 59 mph (94 km/h) was observed at Isla Maria Madre, Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Pamela can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in a couple of hours, with tropical storm conditions continuing to spread over portions of the coast. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela or its remnant is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa, western Durango, and northern Nayarit...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will continue to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula, as well as southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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