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Tropical Depression Omar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2020-09-05 10:33:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 05 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 050833 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0900 UTC SAT SEP 05 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Omar Public Advisory Number 19
2020-09-05 10:33:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 304 WTNT35 KNHC 050833 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 ...OMAR STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.2N 57.1W ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar was located near latitude 36.2 North, longitude 57.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general direction of motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Omar is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or early Sunday, and to dissipate by late Sunday or early Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-09-05 10:32:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 05 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 050832 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0900 UTC SAT SEP 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 57.1W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 57.1W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 57.2W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 37.6N 56.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 40.1N 55.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 43.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.2N 57.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Omar Public Advisory Number 18
2020-09-05 04:40:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 050240 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 ...OMAR MAINTAINS TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.6N 57.3W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar was located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 57.3 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A north-northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight and should continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Omar is forecast to become a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate by Saturday night or Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-09-05 04:40:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050240 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 Another burst of convection has developed near and to the south of the center of Omar, so the system continues as a tropical depression despite ongoing strong shear. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on recently received scatterometer data and a satellite intensity estimated from TAFB. A combination of continued shear, dry air, and cooler waters should cause it to decay to a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate entirely by Saturday night or Sunday. Omar is starting its expected north-northeastward turn and the initial motion is now 070/4. An approaching deep-layer trough should cause Omar to turn north-northeastward tonight and Saturday and then accelerate in that direction until it dissipates over the northern central Atlantic. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 35.6N 57.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 36.8N 56.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 38.9N 55.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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