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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Discussion Number 6

2021-08-11 04:55:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 110255 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 Data from satellites, the San Juan NOAA Doppler weather radar, and an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the low-level circulation has become better defined since the previous advisory and,thus, the disturbance has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Fred. Although the surface and low-level circulations are vertically aligned, radar data indicate that the mid-level circulation is still tilted about 40 n mi to the south. However, that mid-level feature has been steadily gaining ground from its earlier 100-nmi southeastward displacement. Radar Doppler velocity data, aircraft 850-mb flight-level wind data of 43 kt and SFMR surface winds of 33 kt, plus earlier surface observations of sustained 33-kt winds, support an initial intensity of 35 kt. The initial motion estimate is westward or 270/15 kt. However, this should be a short-term motion overnight due to interaction with the mountainous terrain of Puerto Rico to the north. By early Wednesday morning, Fred is expected to resume a west-northwestward motion and pass through the Mona Passage, reaching the eastern Dominican Republic shortly after sunrise. A strong subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast by the global models to basically remain static across the central and western Atlantic Ocean for the next five days. Given this pattern, Fred is expected to maintain a west-northwestward motion through 96 hours, remaining just offshore the north coast of Haiti and Cuba during that time. After emerging over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on day 4, Fred is forecast to gradually turn more north-northwestward as the cyclone rounds the southwestern periphery of the aforementioned ridge. The latest NHC track forecast models strongly support this track scenario, although there was a slight northward shift in the guidance envelope on this cycle. The new official track forecast was shifted a little north of the previous one through 72 hours, and then lies down the middle of the tightly packed track consensus models. Conditions remain favorable for some strengthening before Fred reaches Hispaniola in about 12 h, but the intensity likely won't be much stronger than 40-45 kt at landfall. Interaction with the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola on Wednesday should result in some weakening, but tropical-storm-force winds could occur along the the north coast of the island if the center shifts a little more to right of the forecast track. After emerging back over water by late Wednesday, only slow strengthening is forecast in the 36-60-h time period due to westerly vertical wind shear of about 20 kt expected to affect the cyclone. On days 4 and 5, however, Fred is expected to be moving over warmer sea-surface temperatures and into a much weaker wind shear regime, which would favor more robust strengthening. As a result, some of the regional and statistical- dynamical intensity models bring Fred near or to hurricane strength during that time. However, there is uncertainty Fred's structure after interaction with Hispaniola and possibly Cuba, and continued disagreement between the global models on how the upper-level wind flow pattern near the cyclone will evolve, which ranges from favorable anticyclonic outflow to strong southwesterly shear. Given these factors, the NHC intensity forecast was only nudged slightly higher than the previous advisory, and lies between the consensus models HCCA and IVCN, and the SHIPS and LGEM models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, and are expected to begin in the Dominican Republic Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas by late Wednesday. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be across eastern and southern Puerto Rico. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba during the next several days, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since Fred is forecast to interact with Hispaniola on Wednesday. Interests in these areas should monitor Fred's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in Florida beginning Friday in the Keys and spreading northward through portions of the Peninsula and the Panhandle this weekend. However, it is too soon to determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of any potential impacts. Interests throughout Florida should monitor Fred's progress and check updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 17.4N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 18.6N 68.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 12/0000Z 19.9N 71.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 12/1200Z 20.9N 73.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 13/0000Z 21.8N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 13/1200Z 22.8N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 23.8N 79.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 26.5N 82.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 29.3N 84.6W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2021-08-11 04:54:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 110254 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 1(13) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 2(21) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 1(18) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 4(20) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 7(20) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) X(14) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND TURK 34 X 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 2 25(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) PUERTO PLATA 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 10 5(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) PONCE PR 34 32 X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) AGUADILLA PR 34 45 X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Advisory Number 6

2021-08-11 04:47:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 994 WTNT21 KNHC 110247 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA PALENQUE EASTWARD AND ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO EASTWARD A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER * HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HAITI AND THE BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 66.8W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 66.8W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 66.1W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 18.6N 68.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.9N 71.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.9N 73.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.8N 76.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.8N 78.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.8N 79.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 26.5N 82.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 29.3N 84.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 66.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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