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Tropical Depression Fred Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-08-12 04:52:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 409 WTNT41 KNHC 120252 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 The center of Fred is estimated to be located over extreme eastern Haiti. This position is based on continuity with the previous forecast and a small low-level cyclonic circulation noted in cloud-drift wind vectors that were based on the last few GOES-16 high-resolution visible satellite images. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft performed a quasi-synoptic surveillance mission this evening and released dropsondes while circumnavigating Hispaniola. Some of the dropsondes measured surface winds of 24-27 kt about 150 nmi north and northwest (in the Windward Passage) of the center, and these data support maintaining an intensity of 30 kt for this advisory. The main convective cloud mass has been displaced to the southeast of the low-level center due to the west-northwesterly vertical wind shear of about 20 kt. The initial motion estimate is 300/13 kt. The global and regional models remain in surprisingly good agreement on Fred maintaining a steady west-northwestward motion through 48-60 hours as a strong ridge remains entrenched over the western Atlantic during that time period. Thereafter, however, the NHC model guidance diverges significantly, with the now much weaker HWRF model taking Fred more westward, while the GFS and ECMWF models move the cyclone northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico near or just offshore the Florida west coast; the UKMET model lies between these two track extremes. The weaker HWRF track has been discounted given the NHC forecast that Fred will remain vertically coherent and restrengthen after moving back over water. Thus, the new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the NOAA-HCCA corrected-consensus model. NOTE: the aforementioned NOAA WP-3D reconnaissance aircraft has been releasing dropsondes from approximately the 450-mb level and has also been collecting tail-Doppler radar data. These data should have been assimilated into the 0000 UTC model runs, which hopefully will provide better track and intensity model forecasts for the next advisory package. Fred is forecast remain within a moderate to strong westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear regime throughout the forecast period by almost all of the global and regional models. As a result, rapid strengthening is not expected after Fred moves back over water. There is one caveat, however, and that is the ECMWF model forecasting the shear to weaken to 5-10 kt during the 36-72 hour period, which could allow for a little more strengthening than what the official forecast is currently indicating. The new NHC intensity prediction is identical to the previous one owing to the expectation that some degree of westerly shear will be affecting Fred throughout the entire forecast period. The official forecast follows a blend of the IVCN and HCCA consensus intensity models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early Thursday morning, heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and potential mudslides in the Dominican Republic. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas tonight, and in portions of Cuba Thursday. 3. Beginning Friday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and possible rapid river rises across southern Florida. Heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact the remainder of Florida and parts of the Southeast this weekend and into next week. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions beginning early Saturday in the Florida Keys and spreading northward along portions of the Florida west coast and the Florida Panhandle through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 19.5N 72.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND HISPANIOLA 12H 12/1200Z 20.4N 73.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 13/0000Z 21.6N 76.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 22.5N 78.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 23.5N 79.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 24.7N 81.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 26.2N 82.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 29.2N 84.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 31.7N 84.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Fred Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-08-12 04:51:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 312 WTNT21 KNHC 120251 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HAITI...THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRED. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 72.2W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 72.2W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 71.6W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.4N 73.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.6N 76.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.5N 78.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.5N 79.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 24.7N 81.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 26.2N 82.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 29.2N 84.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 31.7N 84.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 72.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 12/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-12 04:51:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... As of 11:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 the center of Fred was located near 19.5, -72.2 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fred Public Advisory Number 10
2021-08-12 04:51:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 313 WTNT31 KNHC 120251 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 ...FRED PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 72.2W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF CAP HAITIEN HAITI ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for all of the Dominican Republic. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida keys should monitor the progress of Fred. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 72.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and a general west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to be over northern Haiti overnight, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and move near or north of the northern coast of central Cuba Thursday night and Friday. Dropsonde data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little, if any change, in strength is expected overnight. Slow re-intensification is forecast to begin by Thursday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall through Thursday morning could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides. Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises. WIND: Tropical storm conditions could occur in brief squalls over portions of the northwestern coast of the Dominican Republic for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, will also be possible along the northern coast of Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Cuba beginning Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to continue across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola tonight, where they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2021-08-12 04:51:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 120251 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 2(15) X(15) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) 1(11) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 17(25) 2(27) X(27) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 16(20) 2(22) X(22) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 4(24) 1(25) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) 1(15) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 10(25) 1(26) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) 2(24) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 5(23) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 8(25) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 6(25) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 8(22) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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