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Tropical Storm Fred Graphics
2021-08-11 16:58:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Aug 2021 14:58:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Aug 2021 15:23:07 GMT
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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-08-11 16:56:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 111456 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021 Morning satellite imagery and reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the circulation of Fred has become better defined south of the eastern Dominican Republic. The NOAA plane reported maximum flight-level winds of 40-45 kt, and SFMR winds of up to 50 kt, although these were measured near the coast and the reliability is unknown. The central pressure is near 1006 mb. Based on these data and a dropsonde northeast of the center, the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt. The low-level center is partly exposed near the western edge of the convection, which has decreased in coverage since yesterday. The center has been moving more westward for the past few hours. However, the longer term motion is 290/14. There is no change in the track forecast philosophy since the previous advisory. Fred should continue moving generally west-northwestward for the next 72 h or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest as the cyclone nears the western periphery of the ridge. The new forecast track is little changed from the previous advisory and lies near the various consensus models. However, some adjustments to the track may be necessary as the center interacts with the mountains of Hispaniola during the next 12-24 hours. Fred is now in an environment of 15-20 kt of westerly vertical shear produced in part by an upper-level trough near the Florida Peninsula, and the global models suggests that moderate shear should persist for at least the next 48-60 h. This, combined with land interaction, should cause Fred to weaken as it crosses Hispaniola, and then at best slowly re-intensify after it emerges over the water. After that time, the global models suggest the trough should weaken as a large upper-level anticyclone forms near or just southeast of Fred. This evolution could let the shear decrease a little and allow a little more strengthening, particularly when Fred is over the Gulf of Mexico. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are spreading across portions of the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas by late today, and in portions of Cuba by tonight. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides in the Dominican Republic. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises across southern Florida. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba during the next few days, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since Fred is forecast to interact with Hispaniola today and tonight. Interests in these areas should monitor Fred's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. There is an increasing risk of wind and rainfall impacts in Florida beginning Friday night or early Saturday in the Keys and spreading northward through portions of the Peninsula and the Panhandle Saturday through Monday. Interests throughout Florida should monitor Fred's progress and check updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 18.2N 69.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 19.2N 71.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 12/1200Z 20.3N 73.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 13/0000Z 21.4N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 22.3N 78.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 23.3N 79.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 24.6N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 27.5N 83.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 30.5N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-11 16:55:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF FRED CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 11 the center of Fred was located near 18.2, -69.7 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2021-08-11 16:55:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 111455 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) 1(14) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 5(24) X(24) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 6(21) X(21) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) 2(23) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 3(22) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 7(21) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 8(19) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 13(25) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 34 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Fred Public Advisory Number 8
2021-08-11 16:55:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 111455 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021 ...CENTER OF FRED CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 69.7W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from the Dominican Republic/Haiti border eastward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida keys should monitor the progress of Fred. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 69.7 West. Fred is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a general west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to be near or over Hispaniola this afternoon and evening, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and move near or north of the northern coast of central Cuba on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected later today and tonight as the center of Fred crosses Hispaniola. Slow re-intensification is expected beginning Thursday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) mainly to the northeast of the center. La Romana, Dominican Republic, recently reported sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides. Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. By Friday into early next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading across portions of the warning area in the Dominican Republic, and these conditions should continue today. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northern coast of Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Cuba beginning tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Fred are expected to continue across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and reach portions of Hispaniola today, where they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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