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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2014-10-21 22:25:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 212025 TWOAT SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 425 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special outlook to update first system An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft did find a small well- defined low in the southern Bay of Campeche. However, the thunderstorms associated with the low are still not organized enough for this system to be considered a tropical cyclone. Upper-level winds could become more conducive for further development by tomorrow, and this system has the potential to become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland over the Mexican state of Campeche late Wednesday or early Thursday. Later in the week, tropical cyclone formation appears unlikely due to interaction with a cold front while the system is over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Interests in Campeche and elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm warnings could need to be issued with short notice. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles south of the Azores. This system is producing winds of gale-force and could acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next day or so while it moves west- southwestward at about 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by Thursday and development after that time is not likely. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2014-10-21 19:41:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 211741 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A low pressure area in the far southern Bay of Campeche continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds could become a little more conducive for development by tomorrow, and this system still has the potential to become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland over the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late Wednesday or early Thursday. Later in the week, the low also has some potential for development over the northwestern Caribbean Sea if it remains separate from a cold front. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the disturbance. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles south of the Azores. This system is producing winds of gale-force and could acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next day or so while it moves west- southwestward at about 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by Thursday and development after that time is not likely. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2014-10-21 13:47:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 211147 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of low pressure in the southern Bay of Campeche has become better defined. Although the associated showers and thunderstorms are currently not well organized, this system has the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the next day or so while it moves slowly eastward toward the western Yucatan Peninsula. Later in the week, the low is forecast to interact and possibly merge with a frontal system over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Azores. This system is producing winds of gale-force and could gradually acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next day or so while it moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by Thursday and development after that time is not likely. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2014-10-21 07:00:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 210500 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche are currently limited. This system still has the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days while it moves slowly eastward across the southern Bay of Campeche. Later in the week, the low is forecast to interact and possibly merge with a frontal system over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is producing winds to gale-force and could gradually acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next day or so while it moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by late Wednesday and development after that time is not likely. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2014-10-21 01:32:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 202332 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche have changed little in organization since this afternoon. This system has the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days while it moves slowly eastward across the southern Bay of Campeche. Later in the week, the low is forecast to interact and possibly merge with a frontal system over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow afternoon, if necessary. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent. A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is producing winds to gale-force and could gradually acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next day or so while it moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by late Wednesday and development after that time is becoming less likely. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
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