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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2017-08-21 01:59:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 202359 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission earlier this afternoon indicated that the remnants of Harvey, located over the central Caribbean Sea, do not have a well-defined center of circulation. In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized and has decreased in coverage and intensity since earlier in the day. Gradual development of this system is still possible through Monday night while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph near the coast of Honduras, and it could become a tropical cyclone again before it reaches the coast of Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday. The remnants are expected to move into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday, where redevelopment appears more likely due to more favorable upper-level winds. Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A trough of low pressure located about a hundred miles north-northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands is producing an elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extends southeastward toward Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development of this system during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph toward the northern Bahamas and southern Florida. Conditions could become a little more conducive for development later in the week when the system is near Florida or the adjacent waters of the western Atlantic or eastern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is associated with a trough of low pressure. Upper-level winds are not conducive for development of this system while it moves northwestward over the central Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
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atlantic
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2017-08-20 22:21:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 202021 TWOAT Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 420 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update discussion on the remnants of Harvey. Updated: An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the remnants of Harvey found that the system still lacks a well-defined center of circulation, and so far there is no indication of winds to tropical storm force. Satellite images indicate that the associated showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization since earlier today. Gradual development of this system is possible, and it could become a tropical cyclone once again while it moves west-northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea, near the northern coast of Honduras, during the next day or two. The system is expected to reach Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday, and then move into the Bay of Campeche by the middle of the week, where redevelopment appears more likely. Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Satellite data indicate that a trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north of the Dominican Republic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, with some strong winds on its northeast side. Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development of this system during the next day or two, but they could become slightly more conducive for development by midweek when the system is near the northwestern Bahamas or Florida. This system is expected to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located about 900 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands is associated with a trough of low pressure. This system is currently embedded in a dry air mass, and upper-level winds are expected to become too strong to support development in a day or so. Therefore, tropical cyclone formation is not likely while this system moves northwestward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Berg
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2017-08-20 19:34:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 201734 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in association with the remnants of Harvey, but it is still unclear if the system has a closed circulation. Gradual development of this system is possible, and it could become a tropical cyclone once again while it moves west-northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days, and into the Bay of Campeche by midweek. Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently enroute and should provide a better assessment of the structure of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent Satellite data indicate that a trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north of the Dominican Republic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, with some strong winds on its northeast side. Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development of this system during the next day or two, but they could become slightly more conducive for development by midweek when the system is near the northwestern Bahamas or Florida. This system is expected to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located about 900 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands is associated with a trough of low pressure. This system is currently embedded in a dry air mass, and upper-level winds are expected to become too strong to support development in a day or so. Therefore, tropical cyclone formation is not likely while this system moves northwestward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: weather
atlantic
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tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2017-08-20 13:39:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 201138 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association with the remnants of Harvey. Gradual development of this system is possible, and it could become a tropical cyclone once again as it moves west-northwestward across the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this disturbance later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north of Puerto Rico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development of this system during the next couple of days, but they could become slightly more conducive for development by midweek when the system is near the northwestern Bahamas or Florida. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located about 1000 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands is associated with a trough of low pressure. This system is currently embedded in a dry air mass, and upper-level winds are expected to become too strong to support development in a day or so. Therefore, tropical cyclone formation is not likely while this system moves northwestward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2017-08-20 07:16:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 200515 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Harvey, which has degenerated into a tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea are associated with the remnants of Harvey. Unfavorable upper-level winds and dry air are expected to inhibit development today. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for regeneration by Monday when the system moves west-northwestward over the northwest Caribbean Sea, and interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north of the Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for development of this system during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Conditions could become slightly more conducive for development once the system is near the northern Bahamas or Florida later this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands is associated with a trough of low pressure. The system is currently embedded in a dry air mass, and upper-level winds are expected to become too strong to support development in a couple of days. Therefore, tropical cyclone formation is not likely while this system moves northwestward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
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