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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-19 19:44:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
930 ABPZ20 KNHC 191744 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 19 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Nineteen-E located over the southern Gulf of California. An elongated area of low pressure located about 850 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become less organized today. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next few days while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. An area of disturbed weather is expected to form over the weekend a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Some slow development of this system is possible early next week while the system moves nearly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4. Forecaster Roth/Blake
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-19 15:47:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
751 ABPZ20 KNHC 191347 TWOEP Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 650 AM PDT Wed Sep 19 2018 Updated first system to raise probabilities For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Updated: Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a low pressure area over the southern Gulf of California has become better defined this morning. This system could become a tropical depression later today before moving into northwestern mainland Mexico tonight. This disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora through Thursday. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Moisture from this disturbance will also lead to areas of heavy rainfall and a risk of flash flooding in the southwestern United States beginning today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Another elongated area of low pressure is located about 900 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next few days while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Roth/Blake
Tags: north
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eastern
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-19 13:32:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
015 ABPZ20 KNHC 191132 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Sep 19 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from the southern Baja California peninsula northeastward over the southern and central portions of the Gulf of California are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Although the thunderstorm activity has increased and become more concentrated this morning, the system is forecast to move northward into northwestern mainland Mexico tonight limiting its development potential. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora through Thursday. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Moisture from this disturbance will also lead to areas of heavy rainfall and a risk of flash flooding in the southwestern United States beginning today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Another elongated area of low pressure is located about 900 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next few days while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
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eastern
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-19 07:15:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
497 ABPZ20 KNHC 190514 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 18 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from the southern Gulf of California and Baja California Sur southwestward for a few hundred miles are associated with an elongated area of low pressure. The large size of the system and land interaction should limit the development of this disturbance, and it appears that the chances of a tropical cyclone forming are decreasing. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora through Thursday. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Some of the moisture from this disturbance is expected to spread northward into the southwestern United States on Wednesday and Thursday, enhancing rainfall potential and possible flash flooding in that area. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Another area of low pressure is located about 800 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next few days while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-19 01:55:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
500 ABPZ20 KNHC 182354 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Sep 18 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from the southern Gulf of California and Baja California Sur southwestward for a few hundred miles are associated with an elongated area of low pressure. The large size of the system and land interaction should limit the development of this disturbance, and it appears that the chances of a tropical cyclone forming are decreasing. Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce very heavy rainfall over Baja California Sur and other parts of northwestern mainland Mexico over the next few days. Interests in Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Some of the moisture from this disturbance is expected to spread northward into the southwestern United States on Thursday and Friday, enhancing rainfall potential in that area. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Another area of low pressure is located about 800 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next few days while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
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