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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teresa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-09-25 22:41:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 252041 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TERESA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192021 2100 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TERESA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BEVEN
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teresa
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teresa Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-09-25 22:40:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 252040 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TERESA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192021 2100 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 64.3W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 64.3W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 64.6W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 35.7N 63.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 64.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON TERESA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/LATTO
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teresa
Subtropical Depression Teresa Graphics
2021-09-25 16:49:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 25 Sep 2021 14:49:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 25 Sep 2021 14:49:02 GMT
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Subtropical Depression Teresa Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-09-25 16:45:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 897 WTNT44 KNHC 251445 TCDAT4 Subtropical Depression Teresa Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 Teresa has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours now. The cloud pattern consists of a swirl of low-level clouds and a band of showers and thunderstorms located about 250 n mi north of the center. This patch of convection is detached from the low-level circulation, and it appears to be more involved with an upper-level trough to the northeast of Teresa. A 1210 UTC ASCAT-A pass shows that the winds within that convection have decreased, with several vectors in the 25 to 30 kt range. Based on that data, the intensity is lowered to 30 kt, making Teresa a subtropical depression. Teresa is unlikely to redevelop any convection near its center as strong west-southwesterly wind shear continues over the cyclone. This will prevent any opportunity for strengthening. Teresa is expected to become a remnant low later today or this evening and dissipate on Sunday. The global models are in good agreement with this scenario. Teresa has moved little during the past 12 hours, so a stationary motion is currently indicated for this advisory. However, a motion toward the northeast should begin within the next few hours and continue through dissipation as the cyclone moves in the flow ahead of a deep-layer trough. The track forecast was adjusted a little to the east of the previous advisory, and is in agreement with the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 34.3N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 35.4N 64.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1200Z 37.2N 62.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Beven
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Subtropical Depression Teresa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-09-25 16:44:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 251444 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TERESA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192021 1500 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TERESA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BEVEN
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