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Subtropical Storm Teresa Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-09-25 04:42:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 250242 TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Teresa Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 Teresa's cloud pattern is not well organized, even for a subtropical cyclone. The main convective band is rather ragged in appearance, and situated 100 n mi or more to the east and northeast of the exposed low-level center. The current intensity estimate, 40 kt, is in general agreement with the latest subtropical satellite classification from TAFB, but given the disheveled appearance of the system, this may be generous. Teresa has recently been moving more westward than northward, on the northern side of a mid-level cyclonic circulation, and the current motion estimate is an uncertain 300/9 kt. During the next day or so, the cyclone is likely to turn northward and northeastward ahead of a mid-tropospheric trough that will be moving over the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada. The official forecast is a little faster than the previous one, but along the same general trajectory. The HCCA model consensus is somewhat faster than the NHC prediction. The cyclone has been situated under an upper-level low which has kept the vertical shear fairly low thus far. However, as this low moves away from the area, Teresa will begin to experience increasing west-southwesterly shear, and no strengthening is expected. In 48 hours or so, based on the global models, the storm is forecast to become absorbed by the aforementioned trough. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 34.3N 65.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 35.2N 65.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 36.2N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 37.8N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Teresa (AT4/AL192021)
2021-09-25 04:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TERESA LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 24 the center of Teresa was located near 34.3, -65.4 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Teresa Public Advisory Number 2
2021-09-25 04:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 250241 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Teresa Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 ...TERESA LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.3N 65.4W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM NNW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Teresa was located near latitude 34.3 North, longitude 65.4 West. The storm is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a turn toward the north and northeast is expected during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours. Teresa should dissipate in about two days. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Subtropical Storm Teresa Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-09-25 04:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 250241 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192021 0300 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 65.4W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 65.4W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 65.0W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 35.2N 65.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 36.2N 64.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 37.8N 64.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 65.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Subtropical Storm Teresa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-09-25 04:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 250241 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192021 0300 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH