je.st
news
Tag: danny
Tropical Storm Danny Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-06-28 22:42:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 282042 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Danny Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 500 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Deep convection has exploded this afternoon over the center of what is now Tropical Storm Danny. Reconnaissance aircraft measured 49 kt winds at the 850-mb fight-level, which equals roughly a 39-kt surface wind. In addition, Doppler velocity data from the Charleston radar measured average velocities of 49 kt at 6000-7000 ft, which also equate to about 40-kt surface winds. A reconnaissance aircraft dropsonde also measured a central pressure of 1009 mb. Based on these data, the advisory intensity has been increased to 40 kt. The initial motion estimate is 290/14 kt. Tiny Danny is forecast to maintain a west-northwestward motion for the next day or so, with landfall expected along the southern coast of South Carolina likely occurring by 0000 UTC this evening. The small tropical cyclone should continue to move inland across southern South Carolina and eastern Georgia tonight and early Tuesday, with dissipation expected over the mountains of northern Georgia by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus track models HCCA, TVCA, and GFEX. No additional strengthening is anticipated before Danny makes landfall. Rapid weakening should commence shortly after landfall, with Danny likely becoming a remnant low by Tuesday morning. The official intensity forecast follows a blend for the Decay-SHIPS statistical model for inland tropical cyclones, and the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall is possible from coastal southern South Carolina and Georgia, inland across the Piedmont of Georgia into northeast Alabama. Isolated flooding is possible across urban areas of the southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of the South Carolina coast late this afternoon and tonight where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Swells generated by Tropical Storm Danny are expected to affect portions of the South Carolina coast through tonight. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 32.3N 80.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 33.2N 82.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1800Z 34.3N 85.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Danny Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-06-28 22:42:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 282042 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANNY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042021 2100 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BEAUFORT MCAS 34 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ATLANTA GA 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Danny Public Advisory Number 2
2021-06-28 22:42:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 282042 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Danny Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 500 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM DANNY STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AS IT NEARS THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 80.1W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF BEAUFORT SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danny was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 80.1 West. Danny is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue into Tuesday. On the forecast track, Danny will make landfall along the southern coast of South Carolina early this evening, and move into east-central Georgia late tonight and early Tuesday morning. Data from NOAA Doppler radars and reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. No change in strength is expected until landfall occurs in a few hours. Rapid weakening is forecast after Danny moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure based on reports from An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is estimated to be 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Danny can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area very soon making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: Danny could produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts along the immediate coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina. This region has been dry, limiting potential widespread flooding impacts, however, local flooding impacts, especially in urban areas along the southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts, cannot be ruled out at this time. Farther inland, 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is possible across Upstate South Carolina, the Piedmont of Georgia, and into northeastern Alabama. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Royal Sound, SC to South Santee River, SC...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible this evening along the South Carolina coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Danny Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-06-28 22:41:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 282041 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042021 2100 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 80.1W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 80.1W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 79.4W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 33.2N 82.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 34.3N 85.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 80.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Danny Update Statement
2021-06-28 21:05:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 018 WTNT64 KNHC 281905 TCUAT4 Tropical Storm Danny Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 305 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... Doppler radar data from Charleston, South Carolina, along with preliminary data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, indicate that the depression has strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Danny. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. A Weatherflow station at Folly Beach, South Carolina, recently reported a wind gust of 41 mph (66 km/h). SUMMARY OF 305 PM EDT...1905 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 79.7W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF BEAUFORT SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.94 INCHES $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: statement
update
storm
tropical