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Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 12

2020-10-07 16:49:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 071449 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 ...CENTER OF DELTA ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 88.0W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF CABO CATOCHE MEXICO ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM E OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf coast from High Island, Texas, to the Alabama/Florida border including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf coast from High Island, Texas, eastward to Grand Isle, Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along the Texas coast from west of High Island to San Luis Pass. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued along the northern Gulf coast from east of Grand Isle, Louisiana, to Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, including the city of New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. The government of Cuba has discontinued all warnings for Cuba. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * High Island, Texas, to the Alabama/Florida border including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Dzilam Mexico * Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * High Island Texas to Grand Isle Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico * Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * San Luis Pass to west of High Island Texas * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Bay St. Louis Mississippi, including New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 88.0 West. Delta is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northwestward motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected over the next 24 hours. A north-northwestward motion is expected by late Thursday, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast within the hurricane watch area on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern and central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and Delta is expected to become a major hurricane again. Some weakening is is forecast as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels in areas of onshore winds by as much as 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Progreso, and 5 to 7 ft above normal tide levels along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Pecan Island, LA to Port Fourchon, LA including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft Cameron, LA to Pecan Island, LA...4-7 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Ocean Springs, MS to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft High Island, TX to Cameron, LA including Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft Sabine Lake...1-3 ft Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue within the warning area in the Yucatan peninsula during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas along the Gulf coast by late Thursday night or early Friday with hurricane conditions possible within the hurricane watch area by Friday morning. RAINFALL: Through early Thursday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. This rainfall may result in areas of significant flash flooding. Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across portions of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend. SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affect land areas around the northwestern Caribbean Sea today. Swell will begin to affect portions of the northern and western Gulf coast on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Delta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2020-10-07 16:49:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 071449 PWSAT1 HURRICANE DELTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 1500 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) X(21) X(21) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) X(31) X(31) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 33(40) X(40) X(40) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 28(38) X(38) X(38) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 10(17) 8(25) X(25) X(25) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 42(45) 2(47) X(47) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 42(54) 1(55) X(55) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 6( 6) 25(31) 32(63) 8(71) X(71) X(71) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 54(72) 1(73) X(73) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) X(35) X(35) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 43(73) X(73) X(73) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) X(34) X(34) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 59(72) X(72) X(72) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) X(37) X(37) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 54(83) 1(84) X(84) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 44(51) X(51) X(51) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) X(28) X(28) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 51(84) X(84) X(84) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 42(50) 1(51) X(51) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) X(26) X(26) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 5( 5) 50(55) 38(93) 5(98) X(98) X(98) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) 13(13) 56(69) 12(81) X(81) X(81) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 43(46) 11(57) X(57) X(57) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 1(32) X(32) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 52(68) 1(69) X(69) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 1(35) X(35) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 45(79) 1(80) X(80) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 39(49) 1(50) X(50) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) X(29) X(29) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 11(11) 51(62) 26(88) X(88) X(88) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 35(60) X(60) X(60) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 26(37) X(37) X(37) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 40(55) X(55) X(55) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) X(22) X(22) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 33(56) 1(57) X(57) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) X(24) X(24) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 35(68) X(68) X(68) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 28(37) X(37) X(37) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) X(18) X(18) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 12(12) 39(51) 12(63) X(63) X(63) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 11(26) X(26) X(26) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 18(34) 1(35) X(35) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 11(35) X(35) X(35) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 4( 4) 26(30) 34(64) 5(69) X(69) X(69) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 4(30) X(30) X(30) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 32(37) 23(60) X(60) X(60) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 14(26) X(26) X(26) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 21(30) 6(36) 1(37) X(37) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) 14(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) HARLINGEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 5( 5) 12(17) 4(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 38 2(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) COZUMEL MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 21(30) 1(31) X(31) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 12

2020-10-07 16:49:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 071449 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 1500 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER INCLUDING CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...LAKE BORGNE AND MOBILE BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM EAST OF GRAND ISLE, LOUISIANA TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR CUBA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER INCLUDING CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...LAKE BORGNE AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO * COZUMEL A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM MEXICO * DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TO WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS * EAST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI... INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE, IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 88.0W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 88.0W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 87.4W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.8N 90.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.3N 92.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 26.0N 93.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 28.1N 93.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.8N 92.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 140SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.2N 90.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 36.5N 86.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 39.5N 81.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 88.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 07/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 11A

2020-10-07 13:49:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 071149 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 700 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 ...DELTA BRINGING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS TO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 87.4W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM W OF CANCUN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Dzilam Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio * Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico * Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the progress of Delta. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located by satellite images and surface observation inland over northeastern Mexico near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 87.4 West. Delta is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next day or so. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a northward motion is likely Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Although some additional weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula this morning, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday, and Delta could become a category 4 hurricane again by late Thursday. Weakening is expected as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). A WeatherFlow observing site at Puerto Morelos, Mexico, has recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust to 75 mph (122 km/h) after the passage of the center over that location. A wind gust to 64 mph (104 km/h) was recently reported on Cozumel, Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 974 mb (28.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels in areas of onshore winds by as much as 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Progreso, and 5 to 7 ft above normal tide levels along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: In the Yucatan Peninsula, dangerous hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the warning area during the next few hours, with tropical storm conditions already occuring. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area to continue for the next several hours. In Cuba, tropical storm conditions could continue over far western portions of the island during the next few hours. RAINFALL: Through early Thursday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. This rainfall may result in areas of significant flash flooding. In addition, 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts, are expected across portions of western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across portions of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will eventually spread into the Tennessee Valley, and interior southeastern United States this weekend into early next week. SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affect land areas around the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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