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Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 15

2020-10-08 10:31:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 080830 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0900 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO OCEAN SPRINGS...MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND...TX TO SABINE PASS * EAST OF OCEAN SPRINGS...MISSISSIPPI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF SABINE PASS TO MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS...TEXAS TO SABINE PASS * EAST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 91.8W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 91.8W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 91.4W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.6N 93.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.4N 93.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 28.8N 93.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.3N 92.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 110SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.3N 90.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 34.6N 89.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 91.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 08/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Hurricane Delta (AT1/AL262020)

2020-10-08 07:44:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DELTA STRENGTHENS BACK TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY... As of 1:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 the center of Delta was located near 23.0, -91.3 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

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Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 14A

2020-10-08 07:44:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 080543 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 100 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020 ...DELTA STRENGTHENS BACK TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 91.3W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Ocean Springs, Mississippi including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * High Island, TX to Sabine Pass * East of Ocean Springs, Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * East of Sabine Pass to Morgan City, Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass, Texas to Sabine Pass * East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 91.3 West. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northwestward motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected during the next several hours. A turn to the north is forecast to occur tonight followed by a north-northeastward motion on Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the central Gulf of Mexico today, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday. Delta is forecast to move inland within the hurricane warning area by late Friday or Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Delta is expected to become a major hurricane again by tonight or early Friday. Some weakening is forecast as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast by late Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 973 mb (28.73 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Pecan Island to Port Fourchon, LA including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft Cameron, LA to Pecan Island, LA...4-7 ft Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...3-5 ft Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...2-4 ft High Island, TX to Cameron, LA including Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft MS/AL border to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft Sabine Lake...1-3 ft Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by Friday evening, with tropical storm conditions expected within this area earlier on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas on Friday. RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain over the far northwestern Yucatan Peninsula through early Thursday. The additional rainfall may still result in areas of significant flash flooding. Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across portions of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend. TORNADOES: The risk of a few tornadoes will increase late tonight into Friday over portions of southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southwest Alabama. SURF: Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the northern and western Gulf coast later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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